From http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/features/albertavotes/story.htm...
Tories feel the wrath of Cowtown
Conservative candidates find out the hard way that Calgary remains 'mad at Ed' epicentre
Jason Fekete, Calgary Herald; Canwest News Service
Published: Saturday, March 01
CALGARY - Some Calgary Conservative candidates say they're facing the wrath of voters who don't believe Premier Ed Stelmach understands the city.
Several incumbent Tories said they're having to ease concerns about Stelmach, but firmly believe his accomplishments during his first 14 months in office will win support at the ballot box.
Heather Forsyth, who is seeking re-election and was a cabinet minister in Ralph Klein's government, said she's hearing "over and over and over" from people who aren't happy with Stelmach.
"My response to that particular question is the premier is not on the ballot. I'm on the ballot."
Forsyth said the anger goes back to Stelmach's first day in office, when he appointed a rural-heavy cabinet that reduced the number of Calgary ministers. "It hasn't gone away," she said of voter discontent.
Indeed, Forsyth suggested the mood at the doorsteps is different than anything she's experienced during her 15 years as MLA. She is worried about her fate on election day.
"There seems to be an uneasiness out there," she said.
Campaigning in Calgary on Friday, Stelmach said he hasn't heard those complaints from others.
"In speaking to the candidates this week when we were in Calgary . . . they are telling me the doors are very positive and things are going in the right direction," he said.
"It's voter turnout and making sure we get the vote out."
Stelmach will be in Calgary today to launch an all-out blitz, as he's scheduled to make 11 campaign stops. He'll make a few more stops Sunday before heading to his hometown of Andrew.
Today's tour doesn't include a stop at Forsyth's office. Asked whether she's happy with Stelmach's larger provincial campaign, Forsyth wouldn't comment.
Tory incumbent Art Johnston said he's receiving lots of positive feedback at the door, but has heard anti-Stelmach sentiment. He insisted Stelmach has been an activist premier who's addressed long-standing concerns such as increasing resource royalties and resolving the teachers' unfunded pension liability.
"There's some people that want Ralph (Klein) back, and it's not going to happen, but you have to let them vent," Johnston said, urging his caucus colleagues to rally behind the leader.
All but one Calgary Conservative MLA backed former provincial treasurer Jim Dinning in his Tory leadership loss to Stelmach. Johnston backed Dinning, but said it's time to move on and recognize what Stelmach has done.
"Maybe we have to stop trying to take a popular stance with people and pick up for Ed," he added.
Anger being lobbed at Stelmach and the Conservatives is most potent in Calgary, which is the "crankiest" part of Alberta, said political scientist Bruce Foster, chairman of policy studies at Mount Royal College.
"Calgary is the epicentre of 'We're mad at Ed,' " Foster said, noting it's partly due to unpopular policy and cabinet decisions, and being compared with Klein.
Despite the problems facing Stelmach in Calgary, Foster said the opposition likely "doesn't have what it takes to entice people into making a wholesale change."
Back on the campaign trail, Tory candidate Ron Stevens said he's also faced some heat, but is confident voters will put their faith in the PC leader.
"Ed Stelmach is not as well understood in this campaign as Ralph Klein was in the last," Stevens said.
Cindy Ady, longtime Conservative incumbent in Calgary-Shaw, said she's faced a swath of voters who aren't happy with Stelmach and his leadership.
"There's conversation around that, for sure, in my riding. They're still trying to themselves understand Ed and understand where he's heading as a leader," Ady said.
Ady's rebuttal to those concerns is that Stelmach has tackled tough issues and possesses the leadership qualities needed to lead Alberta through some challenging times.
Looking for an extra boost on the campaign trail, Ady said she asked Klein last week if he would come door-knocking with her, but he politely declined.
From http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/features/albertavotes/story.htm...
Stelmach a nice guy in middle of ugly mess
Calgary faction clamours for premier's scalp
Paula Simons, The Edmonton Journal
Published: Saturday, March 01
I like Ed Stelmach. It's hard not to. He's polite, thoughtful, hard-working, down-to-earth. Catch him at the right moment, and he's even pretty funny.
I'd love it if he moved in next door. He'd be the kind of guy who would shovel your walk for you after a bad snowfall or give you a boost if your battery died.
And he's a terribly easy guy to underestimate. That's how he won the Tory leadership. While the attention was focused on the high-profile Jim Dinning and Ted Morton campaigns, Stelmach was quietly, doggedly orchestrating his strategic victory, using the personal networks he spent years building across northern and central Alberta to bring out his voters.
In his year as premier, Stelmach governed with the same kind of stolid, solid approach, quietly cleaning up some of the worst messes left behind by his predecessor. Funding new infrastructure, creating a land-use planning model for metro Edmonton, fixing the teachers unfunded pension liability, trying to repair our absurdly dysfunctional and outdated oil and gas royalty system, establishing all-party legislative committees.
It wasn't sexy stuff, but it was badly needed and badly overdue. And if Stelmach didn't always go far enough, at least he seemed to be moving, cautiously, in the right direction.
On top of that, there's something about the shoddy way Stelmach's been sandbagged through this campaign by some of Calgary's leading political and business interests brings out my sense of hometown loyalty.
The Calgary Herald's lead business columnist, Deborah Yedlin, summed up their attitude in a column earlier this week: "When the business community goes to vote Monday, the only agenda it will have is one of changing the leadership of the provincial Conservative party. Either it will happen by voting for the Conservative candidate in their riding -- with the understanding that the support is being conditionally given for the purpose of starting an internal leadership review -- or by casting a protest vote that will see the Conservatives end up with a smaller number of seats." See SIMONS / B4 "Either way, the premier has lost the confidence of the business community and this election -- no matter what the outcome -- will almost certainly start the process of finding his successor." Gosh, with Tory "friends" like these, Stelmach hardly needs opposition enemies.
But despite all of Stelmach's earnest worthiness, despite my disgust at watching a bunch of Calgary insiders gang up on an Edmonton outlier, it's hard to deny that after 361/2 years in power, the Progressive Conservatives are a tired, lacklustre party, driven by infighting and largely devoid of fresh ideas. For Stelmach's campaign to insist a vote for him is a vote for change is like saying Raoul Casto will bring change to Cuba.
This is a province with a mind-boggling amount of potential, a province on the cusp of global greatness.
We need leaders with the vision, ambition and guts to manage our growth, sustain our prosperity for the future, preserve our environment, and restore the integrity of our battered democratic institutions.
It's time we stopped running this place like a banana republic, where Conservative MLAs, filled with a bloated sense of entitlement, treat the provincial treasury like their party purse, where the civil service has become so politicized we think it's normal that the party in power appoints every returning officer and that senior bureaucrats take "faux" leaves of absence from their allegedly impartial, apolitical "public service" jobs to campaign for the Tories.
Which leads to the questions. Are Kevin Taft and the Liberals up to the task? And are enough voters ready to take a chance on a new governing party? This election campaign was Taft's chance to prove himself. After four years on the job and a somewhat shaky start, he has grown into his role as leader of the Opposition.
He stepped up to lead the Liberals when no one else wanted the job. Now, he's made the transition from caretaker, from another perfectly nice walk-shovelling neighbour to a legitimate premier-in-waiting.
The Liberals have run a smart campaign. They have recruited some strong candidates, with some particular stars in Calgary.
They've developed a comprehensive, coherent and credible policy platform. They have successfully presented themselves, not as a party just hoping to win more opposition seats than Brian Mason's New Democrats, but as a party ready to govern.
But though the Liberals have run a very good campaign, they haven't run a great one. They have looked sharp, professional and competent. Yet despite the Tory's own lacklustre performance, the Liberals haven't succeeded in truly galvanizing voters, especially outside the cities.
Nor has the Wild Rose Alliance succeeded in channelling popular discontent on the right. Not enough Albertans are angry enough.
In a province this rich, perhaps it's just too easy to be complacent.
Even if the Liberals and New Democrats between them take every urban seat, even if the Wild Rose party pick up a handful of rural ridings, Stelmach's quite likely to see himself returned to power, albeit with a significantly reduced majority.
Given the way our seats are apportioned, given the disproportionate number of rural MLAs, it's even possible the Liberals could win the popular vote and still not form the government.
Still, I don't necessarily envy Stelmach the prospect of sitting in a legislature across from a real and rejuvenated opposition, facing rebellion within his own ranks.
Alberta's political monolith has begun to finally begun to fracture, along both geographic and ideological lines. And as the chips fall where they may, a few may land quite hard on Ed Stelmach's perfectly pleasant head.
Panic creeps into Alberta Tory ranks as election nears
Don Martin, Canwest News Service Published: Saturday, March 01, 2008
OTTAWA -- After picking up bad Conservative vibes from his political heartland, Prime Minister Stephen Harper summoned several southern Alberta MPs to his office for a reality check.
The mighty Alberta Progressive Conservative dynasty in trouble? Implausible, if not impossible.
But the confided consensus of MPs was that Premier Ed Stelmach is about to lose a bunch of seats in Monday's provincial election and, if the large undecided vote shifts to the opposition or stays home, perhaps lurch into the nightmare scenario of becoming Alberta's first-ever minority government.
Panic has crept into Conservative ranks, but the fret is most intensely felt in Calgary where the party's 37-year reign is facing its most dangerous electoral test in, well, 37 years.
The Ed Effect has gone toxic in the heart of the oilpatch, a doorstep rejection of Stelmach's folksy low-coherence sincerity as the sign of someone well over their head politically and out of touch with urban Alberta personally.
"We have to work hard for the win this time," confides a veteran Conservative strategist. "That's not something we're used to doing in this party. Usually we sit back and wait for the polls to close to claim victory."
Calgary MLAs are bracing to lose seats that had come with a lifetime Tory guarantee until the writ was dropped last month by the unlikely rookie who replaced Ralph Klein.
The reaction to Stelmach has been so negative, there are already speculative rumbles of who would replace him after he gets savaged in the mandatory review of his leadership in two years.
Sustainable Resources Minister Ted Morton is seen as an early contender. And if there was a draft of sufficient depth to bring on a coronation, former treasurer Jim Dinning might be convinced to take another run at the top.
But to even whisper Conservative leadership change on the eve of an election defies all logic in a province where the economy is roaring and loyalty to political parties runs unfathomably deep.
Consider the short history of long reigns by Alberta parties:
Liberal: 1905-1921
United Farmers of Alberta: 1921-1935
Social Credit: 1935-1971
Progressive Conservative: 1971-200?
Even if, as expected, the Conservatives survive to control the legislature, the spectre of a party-changing rollover in four years is in ascendancy.
The right-wing Wildrose Alliance, a smidgen of a party now, and leader Paul Hinman are suddenly viewed with considerable alarm by Conservatives.
If that party can toehold a handful of seats in this election, keep itself from drifting into ideological extremes and face off against Stelmach in four years, well, that might be the set-up scenario that ushered the Conservatives to power under Peter Lougheed in 1971.
Beyond the sound of the Alberta balloon hissing economic air and the premier's controversial decision on a new royalty regime Stelmach is also facing a demographic sea change in Alberta. The influx of new voters from across Canada who weren't issued a Conservative membership for a birth certificate have few if any recollections of the psyche-scarring National Energy Program. They are not afraid to gamble on party alternatives.
If the Conservatives escape election night only down a single-digit count of seats, they should send a massive bouquet of flowers to Liberal leader Kevin Taft.
The salvation of any weak government is always a weaker opposition -- and while Taft is often unfairly scorned for falling between bland and boring, he does not appear to have the royal jelly for premier consideration.
That's why a quarter of the voters were still in limbo during the final week of the campaign -- they want to flip Stelmach the electoral finger, but can't bring themselves to embrace such a flaccid alternative.
That's why nobody can realistically predict an election outcome with so much whimsical decision-making still at play. The result could be anything from a modest seat loss to a wholesale government defeat.
But that ensures something very new will be on the ballot when the one-party state of Alberta goes to the polls on Monday -- doubt about the outcome.
He's uninspiring and sometimes clueless but the alternative is worse
Colby Cosh, National Post Published: Friday, February 29, 2008
A few days from now, I'm going to do something I haven't done in close to a decade: vote for the Alberta Progressive Conservatives in a general election.
I could not possibly exercise my democratic rights with less pleasure. It's becoming clear that Premier Ed Stelmach, chosen by a divided PC party as a middle option between the technocratic Jim Dinning and the right-wing insurgent Ted Morton, was a poorer choice than either front-runner would have been. English is a second language that Stelmach speaks more like a fourth or fifth. He has cracked down on smoking, hurting businesses on a health care-savings pretext that is contradicted by all the relevant evidence. His flinging of $2-billion at the country's highest-paid teachers to fund voluntarily accepted pension liabilities in advance of the election was an act of monstrous cynicism. He is clueless about civil liberties, and has managed his caucus like an inept substitute teacher.
But the Alberta Liberals are no better, and indeed would be much worse on many of these points. What distinguishes Stelmach's Conservatives from the opposition is a belief in the power of compounding economic growth. The Tories have made Alberta a place that attracts talent and capital from across Canada and around the world. Kevin Taft's Liberals look at the province's booming economy and see only problems.
Recently Taft, in a tête-à-tête with the Edmonton Journal editorial board, looked forward to "the morning people wake up and realize that northeast of Edmonton there's one of the largest petrochemical and industrial complexes in the world, and to the southeast there's a strip coal mine covering 100 square miles ... and there's no land-use planning." The quote captures the man's style neatly. He openly accuses the voters of stupidity; he wishes some central authority had interfered with the growth of the Refinery Row-Scotford belt and the Highvale mine; he looks upon enterprise and sees defilement. Are the tens of thousands of workers he's talking about all supposed to get jobs as land-use planners? Perhaps, they can find work as caddies when Alberta becomes a quarter-million-square-mile golf course?
To hear Taft, you would think that every day in Alberta was a life-or-death struggle with a poisoned environment and post-apocalyptic levels of public infrastructure and services. So why does Alberta have a large positive net balance of immigration from every other province over the last 10 years? It's not just because of $100 oil; the demographic tidal wave peaked in 1998, when benchmark prices were below $20. Tens of thousands are voting with their feet for a way of life. And the Taft Liberals are opposed to everything that defines that way of life economically; they yearn for stronger unions, more business regulation, ubiquitous social housing, generous welfare for capable adults and aggressive environmentalism. God forbid there might remain one refuge in Confederation from multi-tentacled Ontario-style government.
The Liberals are likely to have their best election since 1993. The mass immigration they can't quite explain helps them, diminishing the influence of Trudeauphobic native-Albertans a little more every year. Their characterization of Alberta as a giant failure zone helps them with voters who really do face special pressures from the boom. And Stelmach has been enough of a disappointment to unite the right-wing opposition under the banner of a single protest party.
So why vote for his candidate? I know how it looks: Like some doddering old Stalin-era Bolshevik, I have spent a decade grumbling about The Party, but at the first sign of crisis I hurtle toward its bosom like a coward. My vote won't even mean much in my inner-city constituency of Edmonton-Crystal Meth-Sextrade; New Democrat incumbent David Eggen, a friendly chap who is probably his party's next leader, should win handily.
But on the other hand, like an Old Bolshevik, I am increasingly infuriated by the pact between external critics of Alberta and the Alberta Liberal opposition. Even relatively conservative Canadians outside our borders are fond of sniggering at our 36 years of uninterrupted Conservative government, as if we had not exercised our judgment anew at each election and were not reaping rewards for it now.
What part of the Conservative legacy should we be ashamed of, exactly? The elite public schools, patronized by even the richest families and admired continent-wide? The increasingly outstanding universities, tech schools and research facilities? The cushy working-class salaries? Our liveable, growing twin metropolises? Should we regret that we have dozens of companies quietly providing services and supplies to the worldwide petroleum business? Or perhaps denounce the new non-energy business champions of the province -- WestJet, BioWare, Matrikon, the Forzani and Katz Groups?
No, I'm not voting for Ed Stelmach and the Conservatives because I feel good about doing it. I'm doing it as a small gesture in favour of a party and a premier that, despite enormous failings, have one outstanding qualification to govern Alberta: They like the place.
National Post
ColbyCosh@gmail.com
My reaction Colby - these guys need a rest ; time for them to sit in opposition
FRom http://calsun.canoe.ca/News/Election/2008/03/01/4886329-sun.html
Sat, March 1, 2008
Pundits say landslide unlikely
UPDATED: 2008-03-01 04:14:47 MST
By SUN MEDIA
Heading to the electoral wire, most pundits don't expect any party to come close to matching the loftiest share of the popular vote ever recorded in an Alberta provincial election.
The high mark occurred in 1975 when the Tories, led by Peter Lougheed, captured 62.7% of all ballots cast.
That landslide was almost repeated by Lougheed again in 1982 when his party cornered 62.3% of the vote and by one of his successors, Ralph Klein in 2001 with 61.9%.
Klein's numbers were shaved considerably in 2004 when the PC's took 46.8%.
NO-SHOW LIST RELEASED
Alberta Liberals are keeping a roll call on Tory absences at political forums.
Keeping tabs on PC no-shows, the Grits yesterday released what they call an incomplete list of 14 that includes Premier Ed Stelmach ducking a Feb. 27 debate in his Edmonton-area riding.
"This makes us nostalgic for Ralph Klein, who at least showed up to local forums in his own constituency in three of the four elections he was PC leader," reads a Liberal Party statement.
POLL WORKER GAP FILLED
Elections Alberta has filled a staffing gap at Calgary polling stations that appeared earlier in the campaign.
A shortfall of 500 electoral workers in the city no longer exists, said Teresa Atterbury, spokeswoman for Elections Alberta.
It should take most voters 15 minutes or less to cast a ballot, she said, adding the busiest times will be between 4:30 p.m and 7 p.m.
From http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/features/albertavotes/story.htm...
Taft predicts Liberals will peak during final weekend of campaign
Poll shows gap narrowing in recent days
Kelly Cryderman, Calgary Herald; Canwest News Service
Published: 3:05 am
FORT MCMURRAY - Liberal Leader Kevin Taft made a series of promises across northern Alberta on Friday, including commitments for upgrades to a deadly highway south of Grande Cache and an additional MLA for the people of Fort McMurray.
Polls suggest the mood among Alberta voters has changed little during the past two weeks. But with just a weekend left before the vote, Taft maintains his party has yet to hit its peak.
"I'm expecting to see significant shift over the weekend," Taft said in Fort McMurray. "Our candidates are feeling it on the doorsteps. Fifty per cent or more of Albertans want a change of government and they're going to speak on Monday."
Taft was referring to a new Angus Reid poll of 753 people, conducted over Feb. 27 and 28, that found that the opinions of voters have barely budged.
Some aspects of the poll look positive for Taft. Among voters who say they have chosen their party and say they will vote Monday, the PC party has 39 per cent support, and the Liberals at 30 per cent. The NDP is at 13 per cent support and the Wildrose Alliance is at 10. The Angus Reid poll has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points and is considered accurate 19 times out of 20.
Other polls have shown the gap between the governing Tories and Liberals to be much wider.
The lack of movement among Alberta voters must be frustrating to Taft in the campaign's final days, said University of Lethbridge political scientist Peter McCormick.
"I think he's run a very strong campaign," McCormick said, adding Taft has done a good job of presenting himself as a candidate with new ideas.
"Albertans are not listening. But I think that says more about Albertans than Kevin Taft."
Earlieer in Grande Cache, Taft said Highway 40 would get a series of improvements, including widening, within the next three years.
His chartered plane also made stops in Grande Prairie and the Wabasca-Desmarais area.
In Fort McMurray, Taft delved into the tricky politics of electoral boundaries and said a government under his leadership would give the people in the sprawling riding of Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo an additional one or two MLAs to make sure the fast-growing area receives fair representation.
He said it would be up to an appointed commission as to which other parts of Alberta would lose seats to ensure Fort McMurray got more.
"It is the economic spark-plug of this country," Taft said of the municipality and region. "This is a special case and it needs special consideration."
From http://www.630ched.com/Channels/Reg/NewsLocal/Story.aspx?ID=1000865
Most recent poll results show "turn out" key
3:41pm
Bob Layton
2/29/2008
There are new Angus Reid numbers out this afternoon. They indicate Monday's election is getting tighter as voter turn out is becoming a very large factor.
Premier Ed Stelmach, campaigning for votes at seniors residences in town, says he's starting to feel the momentum of the campaign swing in favour of his Tories.
"Our candidates are saying that the mood has changed. Many people are saying 'are you with that guy Ed? Okay you've got my vote'"
However the most recent numbers from Angus Reid tell a different story.
In over all numbers, Ed Stelmach has a fifteen point lead over Kevin Taft, 43% to 28%.
But when you narrow things down to those voters who are absolutely certain to vote the gap narrows to nine points 39% to 30%.
Angus Reid says that gives Stelmach the only negative momentum numbers in his survey at minus fifteen. Meaning voter turn is extra important to Stelmach's chances. His soft support might stay home.
end of Ched Article.
Looks to me like Get The Vote out.
FRom http://calgary.ctv.ca/servlet/RTGAMArticleHTMLTemplate/B,C/20080229/S...
Poll shows shift in political support
calgary.ctv.ca
POSTED AT 12:19 PM Friday, February 29
A new poll shows it is shaping up to be a wild election night in Calgary.
In Calgary, support for the Conservatives stands at 44 per cent among decided voters. The Tories took 52 per cent of the vote in the city in 2004.
Liberal support is at 29 per cent, almost exactly where it was in 2004.
Wildrose Alliance support has jumped to 13 per cent compared to 7 per cent for the Alberta Alliance in 2004.
The Green Party has jumped to 10 per cent compared to 6 per cent in 2004.
The NDP is down to 3 per cent.
This poll was taken February 27 and 28.
end of CTV article.
How close is it in Calgary? really?
From http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3831
No Stars In Alberta Election Campaign
None Of The Parties Have Captured Interest Of Voters Tories Viewed As Best On All Issues, Especially Economy, Crime And Oil Royalties
February 28, 2008
Contact Kyle Braid at (778) 373-5000
Category Ipsos Reid/Global/National Post , Politics & Elections (City/Regional)
Location Canada
Calgary, AB
The campaigns of the Liberals and New Democrats have turned-off as many voters as they have turned-on. Kevin Taft and the Liberals have 19% improved impressions and 21% worsened impressions. For Brian Mason and the NDP, it's 15% improved impressions and 17% worsened impressions.
The governing Progressive Conservatives are the only party with significant negative momentum in the campaign. More than one-third (36%) of Albertans say their impression of Ed Stelmach and the Progressive Conservatives has worsened over the course of the campaign, compared to 13% who say their impression has improved.
In Calgary, the results are slightly positive for the Wildrose Alliance and the Liberals, negative for the NDP and very negative for the Conservatives.
Paul Hinman and the Wildrose Alliance have more improved impressions (19%) than worsened impressions (13%).
Kevin Taft and the Liberals have more improved impressions (22%) than worsened impressions (17%).
Brian Mason and the NDP have more worsened impressions (18%) than improved impressions (9%).
Ed Stelmach and the Progressive Conservatives have more worsened impressions (41%) than improved impressions (8%).
While the Conservatives are struggling with momentum, they are still the top choice of voters to deal with every significant campaign issue. Kevin Taft and the Liberals are second choice on all issues, with the exception of housing affordability, where they finish third (though a statistical tie) to Brian Mason and the NDP.
Ed Stelmach and the Progressive Conservatives do best in relation to their nearest rivals, the Liberals, on the issues of the economy (15 point lead), crime (14 point lead) and oil royalties (12 point lead). The Conservative lead is smaller on the environment (3 point lead), housing affordability (5 point lead over NDP) and education (6 point lead). Of note, is the substantial block of voters (roughly four-in-ten on all issues) who at this point in the campaign are unsure which party is best, or say that none is best.
In Calgary, the Conservatives are rated first (or tied for first) on all issues, with the Liberals being their closest competitor on every issue.
Similar to the overall provincial results, the Tories have their biggest advantage on the issues of the economy (14 point lead), oil royalties (13 point lead) and crime (11 point lead).
The Conservative advantage is smaller on the issues of education (6 point lead) and housing affordability (4 point lead).
* The Conservatives have no real advantage over the Liberals on the issues of climate change/environment (1 point lead) and health care (tie).
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid online poll conducted between February 25 and 27, 2008. The poll is based on a representative sample of 725 adult Albertans. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Alberta been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Alberta population according to Census data.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice-President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
778-373-5130
Kyle.Br...@ipsos-reid.com
Missing one or 2 tables however
Change of Impression Over the Course ofthe Campaign
WRA +6
ALP -2
NDP -2
APCP -23
End of REid Poll
Tory impression going down!
I refuse to post Strategic Council, their numbers puts the PCs
From http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/features/albertavotes/story.htm...
At least Monday might be exciting
Undecided voters could turn the end of this boring campaign into a real nail-biter
Graham Thomson, The Edmonton Journal
Published: Thursday, February 28
They're starting to droop, beginning to fall over on their faces.
You can see them as you drive along the road -- election campaign signs sliding into the gutter.
The snowbanks that once held them firmly in place are starting to melt. Or maybe, just maybe, it's because even the election signs grow tired of this campaign.
They, like many Albertans, seem to have given up.
Or at the very least they don't know what to make of this campaign.
There is no big ballot issue, no outstanding leader.
We have four, or five, middle-aged guys in suits promising more help for, among other things, seniors, teachers, students, parents, children, police, farmers, renters, homeowners, the homeless, drivers, Calgarians, Edmontonians, farmers, and, in the case of the Green Party, people who make mead.
It doesn't seem to matter that there are real policy differences over issues such as the oilsands.
The Liberals and New Democrats, for example, want to slow down the pace of development; the Conservatives and
Alliance don't. Liberals want to put tighter restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions; the Conservatives don't. The NDP wants public auto insurance; the Conservatives don't.
There are dozens of issues but no big issue that is swaying great numbers of people one way or another.
In this election campaign the public's imagination hasn't been grabbed, sparked or engaged. It, too, seems to be sliding into the gutter.
Consequently, people are falling back on their old biases and political bigotry.
"Liberal" is still a four-letter word for many Albertans even though the party is separate from the federal party and takes great pains to preface itself with "Alberta."
Conservatives say Liberals are free spenders who will rack up budget deficits immediately. The Wildrose Alliance says Conservatives are free spenders who will be racking up budget deficits within a year.
Liberals say Conservatives are arrogant and out of touch after running the province for 37 years. New Democrats say Liberals are out of touch with average Albertans. All of them say the New Democrats are simply out of touch.
There's been a fair amount of ridiculous finger pointing.
The Liberals, for example, put out a news release last week describing a "bumbling" Conservative Leader Ed Stelmach who "unravelled" during the leaders debate.
Stelmach may not have set the house on fire but he was competent. He didn't bumble and he didn't unravel.
Stelmach, for his part, is playing to political prejudices with his repeated claim that, if elected, the Liberals would kill 335,000 jobs with their proposed reductions on greenhouse gas emissions from the oilsands.
JOB-LOSS CLAIM FOUND LACKING
Stelmach has never been clear where that number comes from. It certainly is not coming from the Liberals.
At first Stelmach said those jobs would be lost in Alberta alone. Now, he's backed off a bit, saying the job losses would be spread across the country.
But he still can't seem to explain where that number came from.
Stelmach is twisting the facts, insisting the Liberals would impose Kyoto-style reductions.
The Liberals are not saying that at all. They want a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, true, but not to the extent Stelmach is talking about.
Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change are issues Albertans care about. The environment is a major concern. And, according to a recent Leger Marketing poll, the government is failing on this issue.
When asked if the government was doing enough to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, 57 per cent said no.
Not only that, 62 per cent of those surveyed said the government should reduce emissions even if it means delaying or cancelling some oilsands projects.
Almost half of respondents said they would prefer a change in government -- but the Conservatives still lead in voter preference.
If there is one big overriding issue, it might be leadership and/or trust. On that, Stelmach comes out on top, according to the Leger poll.
It's all relative, though.
Take, for example, this question: "If an election was held today, which political party would you vote for?"
Ed Stelmach's Conservatives: 40 per cent.
Kevin Taft's Liberal Party: 18 per cent.
Brian Mason's New Democratic Party: 5 per cent.
George Read's Green Party: 5 per cent.
Paul Hinman's Wildrose Alliance: 6 per cent.
"I don't know": 27 per cent.
Nobody is the odds-on favourite. The majority of Albertans want somebody else, even if they don't know who that is.
On the question of who has run the best campaign so far, Stelmach gets the highest rating of any leader with 32 per cent. But the absolute winner is "None of the above/I don't know" at 40 per cent.
If the Liberals are indeed being held back because of their name, they should change it to the "I Don't Know/None of the Above Party." They'd probably win on Monday.
I hasten to add that a boring campaign doesn't mean a boring election night.
During the 2004 election campaign, the polls indicated another 70-plus-seat government for the Tories.
Instead, they lost a dozen seats. Not because a significant number of people switched to the opposition, but because a significant number of traditional Tory supporters stayed home.
What has been a boring election campaign might yet turn out to be an interesting election night.
gthom...@thejournal.canwest.com
GRAHAM THOMSON
Off the Ledge
In Graham's blog, he digs through the political rhetoric.
To read Graham's blog go to http://www.edmontonjournal.com and click on blogs