Dave Yadallee's personal blog

From http://www.nationalpost.com/most_popular/story.html?id=344476





Panic creeps into Alberta Tory ranks as election nears



Don Martin, Canwest News Service Published: Saturday, March 01, 2008



OTTAWA -- After picking up bad Conservative vibes from his political heartland, Prime Minister Stephen Harper summoned several southern Alberta MPs to his office for a reality check.



The mighty Alberta Progressive Conservative dynasty in trouble? Implausible, if not impossible.



But the confided consensus of MPs was that Premier Ed Stelmach is about to lose a bunch of seats in Monday's provincial election and, if the large undecided vote shifts to the opposition or stays home, perhaps lurch into the nightmare scenario of becoming Alberta's first-ever minority government.



Panic has crept into Conservative ranks, but the fret is most intensely felt in Calgary where the party's 37-year reign is facing its most dangerous electoral test in, well, 37 years.



The Ed Effect has gone toxic in the heart of the oilpatch, a doorstep rejection of Stelmach's folksy low-coherence sincerity as the sign of someone well over their head politically and out of touch with urban Alberta personally.



"We have to work hard for the win this time," confides a veteran Conservative strategist. "That's not something we're used to doing in this party. Usually we sit back and wait for the polls to close to claim victory."



Calgary MLAs are bracing to lose seats that had come with a lifetime Tory guarantee until the writ was dropped last month by the unlikely rookie who replaced Ralph Klein.



The reaction to Stelmach has been so negative, there are already speculative rumbles of who would replace him after he gets savaged in the mandatory review of his leadership in two years.



Sustainable Resources Minister Ted Morton is seen as an early contender. And if there was a draft of sufficient depth to bring on a coronation, former treasurer Jim Dinning might be convinced to take another run at the top.



But to even whisper Conservative leadership change on the eve of an election defies all logic in a province where the economy is roaring and loyalty to political parties runs unfathomably deep.



Consider the short history of long reigns by Alberta parties:



Liberal: 1905-1921



United Farmers of Alberta: 1921-1935



Social Credit: 1935-1971



Progressive Conservative: 1971-200?



Even if, as expected, the Conservatives survive to control the legislature, the spectre of a party-changing rollover in four years is in ascendancy.



The right-wing Wildrose Alliance, a smidgen of a party now, and leader Paul Hinman are suddenly viewed with considerable alarm by Conservatives.



If that party can toehold a handful of seats in this election, keep itself from drifting into ideological extremes and face off against Stelmach in four years, well, that might be the set-up scenario that ushered the Conservatives to power under Peter Lougheed in 1971.



Beyond the sound of the Alberta balloon hissing economic air and the premier's controversial decision on a new royalty regime Stelmach is also facing a demographic sea change in Alberta. The influx of new voters from across Canada who weren't issued a Conservative membership for a birth certificate have few if any recollections of the psyche-scarring National Energy Program. They are not afraid to gamble on party alternatives.



If the Conservatives escape election night only down a single-digit count of seats, they should send a massive bouquet of flowers to Liberal leader Kevin Taft.



The salvation of any weak government is always a weaker opposition -- and while Taft is often unfairly scorned for falling between bland and boring, he does not appear to have the royal jelly for premier consideration.



That's why a quarter of the voters were still in limbo during the final week of the campaign -- they want to flip Stelmach the electoral finger, but can't bring themselves to embrace such a flaccid alternative.



That's why nobody can realistically predict an election outcome with so much whimsical decision-making still at play. The result could be anything from a modest seat loss to a wholesale government defeat.



But that ensures something very new will be on the ballot when the one-party state of Alberta goes to the polls on Monday -- doubt about the outcome.

From the National Post A grudging vote for Ed Stelmach



He's uninspiring and sometimes clueless but the alternative is worse



Colby Cosh, National Post Published: Friday, February 29, 2008



A few days from now, I'm going to do something I haven't done in close to a decade: vote for the Alberta Progressive Conservatives in a general election.



I could not possibly exercise my democratic rights with less pleasure. It's becoming clear that Premier Ed Stelmach, chosen by a divided PC party as a middle option between the technocratic Jim Dinning and the right-wing insurgent Ted Morton, was a poorer choice than either front-runner would have been. English is a second language that Stelmach speaks more like a fourth or fifth. He has cracked down on smoking, hurting businesses on a health care-savings pretext that is contradicted by all the relevant evidence. His flinging of $2-billion at the country's highest-paid teachers to fund voluntarily accepted pension liabilities in advance of the election was an act of monstrous cynicism. He is clueless about civil liberties, and has managed his caucus like an inept substitute teacher.



But the Alberta Liberals are no better, and indeed would be much worse on many of these points. What distinguishes Stelmach's Conservatives from the opposition is a belief in the power of compounding economic growth. The Tories have made Alberta a place that attracts talent and capital from across Canada and around the world. Kevin Taft's Liberals look at the province's booming economy and see only problems.



Recently Taft, in a tête-à-tête with the Edmonton Journal editorial board, looked forward to "the morning people wake up and realize that northeast of Edmonton there's one of the largest petrochemical and industrial complexes in the world, and to the southeast there's a strip coal mine covering 100 square miles ... and there's no land-use planning." The quote captures the man's style neatly. He openly accuses the voters of stupidity; he wishes some central authority had interfered with the growth of the Refinery Row-Scotford belt and the Highvale mine; he looks upon enterprise and sees defilement. Are the tens of thousands of workers he's talking about all supposed to get jobs as land-use planners? Perhaps, they can find work as caddies when Alberta becomes a quarter-million-square-mile golf course?



To hear Taft, you would think that every day in Alberta was a life-or-death struggle with a poisoned environment and post-apocalyptic levels of public infrastructure and services. So why does Alberta have a large positive net balance of immigration from every other province over the last 10 years? It's not just because of $100 oil; the demographic tidal wave peaked in 1998, when benchmark prices were below $20. Tens of thousands are voting with their feet for a way of life. And the Taft Liberals are opposed to everything that defines that way of life economically; they yearn for stronger unions, more business regulation, ubiquitous social housing, generous welfare for capable adults and aggressive environmentalism. God forbid there might remain one refuge in Confederation from multi-tentacled Ontario-style government.



The Liberals are likely to have their best election since 1993. The mass immigration they can't quite explain helps them, diminishing the influence of Trudeauphobic native-Albertans a little more every year. Their characterization of Alberta as a giant failure zone helps them with voters who really do face special pressures from the boom. And Stelmach has been enough of a disappointment to unite the right-wing opposition under the banner of a single protest party.



So why vote for his candidate? I know how it looks: Like some doddering old Stalin-era Bolshevik, I have spent a decade grumbling about The Party, but at the first sign of crisis I hurtle toward its bosom like a coward. My vote won't even mean much in my inner-city constituency of Edmonton-Crystal Meth-Sextrade; New Democrat incumbent David Eggen, a friendly chap who is probably his party's next leader, should win handily.



But on the other hand, like an Old Bolshevik, I am increasingly infuriated by the pact between external critics of Alberta and the Alberta Liberal opposition. Even relatively conservative Canadians outside our borders are fond of sniggering at our 36 years of uninterrupted Conservative government, as if we had not exercised our judgment anew at each election and were not reaping rewards for it now.



What part of the Conservative legacy should we be ashamed of, exactly? The elite public schools, patronized by even the richest families and admired continent-wide? The increasingly outstanding universities, tech schools and research facilities? The cushy working-class salaries? Our liveable, growing twin metropolises? Should we regret that we have dozens of companies quietly providing services and supplies to the worldwide petroleum business? Or perhaps denounce the new non-energy business champions of the province -- WestJet, BioWare, Matrikon, the Forzani and Katz Groups?



No, I'm not voting for Ed Stelmach and the Conservatives because I feel good about doing it. I'm doing it as a small gesture in favour of a party and a premier that, despite enormous failings, have one outstanding qualification to govern Alberta: They like the place.



National Post



ColbyCosh@gmail.com



My reaction Colby - these guys need a rest ; time for them to sit in opposition

March 1, 2008



It's time for a new government, Taft tells Calgary rally



Calgary - Several hundred enthusiastic supporters turned out today to hear

Alberta Liberal Leader Kevin Taft deliver one strong message: Alberta needs

a new government.



"It's time," said Taft. "We've been saying it through this entire campaign,

and on Monday-together-we will translate those words into action: It's time

for a new government."



"Ed Stelmach expects Albertans to wait four years for the end of health care

premiums. He expects Albertans to wait until 2050 before taking serious

steps to address climate change. When it comes to affordable housing, he

expects us to wait. When it comes to spiralling electricity and auto

insurance rates, he expects us to wait. . And when it comes to hospital

emergency rooms and surgical procedures, he really expects us to wait."



"Well, we've had enough waiting. We've had 37 years of waiting. We need a

new government."



"On Tuesday morning, we will wake up to the Next Alberta. We'll wake up to a

province where public health care is stronger than ever, where we lead the

planet in protecting the environment, where we protect jobs and the economy,

where we make our communities safer, and where we save and invest our money

for the future."



"We'll wake up to a new government. An Alberta Liberal government."



"Ed Stelmach himself was quoted yesterday saying that the Liberals will be

successful. We agree."



"We will be successful because of all the ways we're different from the

Tories. Alberta has changed. The world has changed, but Ed Stelmach and the

Tory government have not. Like Rip Van Winkel, they've been asleep for

decades. It's time to move on, Alberta! We need a new government!"



Taft told the enthusiastic crowd that the Alberta Liberals are the only

party in this election poised to form a new government that acts on

Albertans' needs and priorities.



"Our opponents know what the people and the experts have been saying," said

Taft. "The Alberta Liberals are the strongest on the environment, we're the

strongest on health care, we're the strongest on education, we're the

strongest on jobs and the economy, we're the strongest on saving for the

future. Not the Greens, not the NDP."



"Not the Conservatives."



On top of that, Taft reminded the crowd of the Alberta Liberal commitment to

Calgary and Alberta.



Taft said the Alberta Liberals will:



Build the long-delayed new facility for the Tom Baker Cancer Centre,

along with the South Health Campus.

Get the South West Calgary Ring Road built.

Establish Mount Royal University.

Create a new royalty regime that gives Albertans their fair share

while also protecting jobs, the environment and the economy.

Build schools in the Calgary communities that need them-without

resorting to P3s-and protect and improve the schools we already have.

Enact a big cities charter, giving Calgary the constitutional power

it needs to chart its own course.

* Bring the Legislature back to Albertans. It belongs to them.



"Nothing changes unless we change government," said Taft. "Albertans have a

chance to change the future."



"It's time for the next Alberta - it's time for a new government."

March 1, 2008



Alberta Liberals to investigate high fertilizer prices



Red Deer - Kevin Taft announced today that an Alberta Liberal government

will launch an inquiry into high fertilizer prices, which are up 50 per cent

over the last two years.



"There's no obvious reason for these excessive price increases, especially

with natural gas prices flat," said Taft. "An Alberta Liberal government

will launch an inquiry into high fertilizer prices, and if necessary take

measures to end price gouging."



"Alberta's farmers have been neglected and forgotten by this government for

too long," said Taft. "What have the Tories actually done for rural

Albertans? They take the rural vote for granted and allow family farms to

suffer.



"It's time for a change. We need a new government, one that actually listens

to the needs of family farms," Taft said.



"Easing the burden of high fertilizer prices is just one step we'll take to

help farmers, because there's so much to do. We'll also work with farmers to

revise aid programs and delivery to make sure they actually get the aid

that's set out for them."



Taft added the Alberta Liberals will make it a priority to ensure that

farmers' voices are heard and that their hard work is supported.



The Alberta Liberals released their policy on rural communities as part of

their Action Plan for Alberta at the start of this campaign

(www.albertaliberal.com , under "What We

Stand For").



Other steps an Alberta Liberal government will take for farmers include:



Protect long-term water supplies for agriculture and rural

communities by restricting inter-basin water transfers, phasing out the

pumping of fresh water down oil wells and implementing our coal bed methane

strategy.

Collaborate with cattle producers to build a sustainable base for

the beef industry.

Keep the Alberta Utilities Commission - the former EUB - responsible

and accountable.

Restore regional agriculture offices to create a "one-stop shop" for

rural Albertans for information and consultative services on all provincial

matters.

Review the Surface Rights Act and Expropriation Act to make sure a

fair balance is struck between industry and landowners.

Create a land use plan to balance industrial interests with the

interests of communities and the environment.



"Our farmers and ranchers are the backbone of Alberta, and we'll work with

them to create a sustainable agriculture sector that allows small operators

and family farms to thrive," said Taft.



"It's time for the next Alberta - it's time for a new government."

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE



March 1, 2008



It's time for a new government, says Kevin Taft



Red Deer - Alberta Liberal Leader Kevin Taft told Red Deer and Central

Albertan residents today that after 37 years of Tory rule, it's time for a

new government.



"On the 26th day of this election campaign, I'm here to talk about the need

for change - for the next Alberta," said Taft. "I'm here to talk about the

need for a government that listens to citizens, instead of tuning them out."



"It's time for a government that will listen to its people, that will put

money back into education and health care, that will spend wisely and save

wisely, that will protect our environment," said Taft. "After 37 years of

Tory rule, it's time for a change so we can get the job done right."



Taft says an Alberta Liberal government will support the upgrading of the

Red Deer Airport, protect the Red Deer River basin, boost affordable housing

and reduce homelessness, put more police officers on the street, and ensure

that government agencies are accountable, transparent and fair.



The Alberta Liberals will also provide Red Deer residents with better access

to their legislators by taking the Legislative Assembly on the road for two

weeks each year to a different community outside Edmonton.



"The people of Red Deer have been taken for granted for far too long - it's

time for this region to regain its voice in the provincial Legislature,"

said Taft. "You have a chance to shape the foundations of this province by

voting for a new government."



Taft notes that the Alberta Liberal platform has been getting solid reviews

all over the province. The Alberta Medical Association gave our health care

policies top marks out of all the other parties, and the Conservation Voters

of Alberta said our environment platform is the strongest.



"Nothing changes unless we change government," said Taft. "Albertans have a

chance to send a message, to change the future."



"It's time for the next Alberta - it's time for a new government."

FRom http://calsun.canoe.ca/News/Election/2008/03/01/4886329-sun.html



Sat, March 1, 2008

Pundits say landslide unlikely

UPDATED: 2008-03-01 04:14:47 MST



By SUN MEDIA



Heading to the electoral wire, most pundits don't expect any party to come close to matching the loftiest share of the popular vote ever recorded in an Alberta provincial election.



The high mark occurred in 1975 when the Tories, led by Peter Lougheed, captured 62.7% of all ballots cast.



That landslide was almost repeated by Lougheed again in 1982 when his party cornered 62.3% of the vote and by one of his successors, Ralph Klein in 2001 with 61.9%.



Klein's numbers were shaved considerably in 2004 when the PC's took 46.8%.



NO-SHOW LIST RELEASED



Alberta Liberals are keeping a roll call on Tory absences at political forums.



Keeping tabs on PC no-shows, the Grits yesterday released what they call an incomplete list of 14 that includes Premier Ed Stelmach ducking a Feb. 27 debate in his Edmonton-area riding.



"This makes us nostalgic for Ralph Klein, who at least showed up to local forums in his own constituency in three of the four elections he was PC leader," reads a Liberal Party statement.



POLL WORKER GAP FILLED



Elections Alberta has filled a staffing gap at Calgary polling stations that appeared earlier in the campaign.



A shortfall of 500 electoral workers in the city no longer exists, said Teresa Atterbury, spokeswoman for Elections Alberta.



It should take most voters 15 minutes or less to cast a ballot, she said, adding the busiest times will be between 4:30 p.m and 7 p.m.

From http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/features/albertavotes/story.htm...



Taft predicts Liberals will peak during final weekend of campaign

Poll shows gap narrowing in recent days

Kelly Cryderman, Calgary Herald; Canwest News Service

Published: 3:05 am



FORT MCMURRAY - Liberal Leader Kevin Taft made a series of promises across northern Alberta on Friday, including commitments for upgrades to a deadly highway south of Grande Cache and an additional MLA for the people of Fort McMurray.



Polls suggest the mood among Alberta voters has changed little during the past two weeks. But with just a weekend left before the vote, Taft maintains his party has yet to hit its peak.



"I'm expecting to see significant shift over the weekend," Taft said in Fort McMurray. "Our candidates are feeling it on the doorsteps. Fifty per cent or more of Albertans want a change of government and they're going to speak on Monday."



Taft was referring to a new Angus Reid poll of 753 people, conducted over Feb. 27 and 28, that found that the opinions of voters have barely budged.



Some aspects of the poll look positive for Taft. Among voters who say they have chosen their party and say they will vote Monday, the PC party has 39 per cent support, and the Liberals at 30 per cent. The NDP is at 13 per cent support and the Wildrose Alliance is at 10. The Angus Reid poll has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points and is considered accurate 19 times out of 20.



Other polls have shown the gap between the governing Tories and Liberals to be much wider.



The lack of movement among Alberta voters must be frustrating to Taft in the campaign's final days, said University of Lethbridge political scientist Peter McCormick.



"I think he's run a very strong campaign," McCormick said, adding Taft has done a good job of presenting himself as a candidate with new ideas.



"Albertans are not listening. But I think that says more about Albertans than Kevin Taft."



Earlieer in Grande Cache, Taft said Highway 40 would get a series of improvements, including widening, within the next three years.



His chartered plane also made stops in Grande Prairie and the Wabasca-Desmarais area.



In Fort McMurray, Taft delved into the tricky politics of electoral boundaries and said a government under his leadership would give the people in the sprawling riding of Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo an additional one or two MLAs to make sure the fast-growing area receives fair representation.



He said it would be up to an appointed commission as to which other parts of Alberta would lose seats to ensure Fort McMurray got more.



"It is the economic spark-plug of this country," Taft said of the municipality and region. "This is a special case and it needs special consideration."



© The Edmonton Journal 2008

Polls Polls and more Polls



From http://www.630ched.com/Channels/Reg/NewsLocal/Story.aspx?ID=1000865



Most recent poll results show "turn out" key

3:41pm

Bob Layton

2/29/2008



There are new Angus Reid numbers out this afternoon. They indicate Monday's election is getting tighter as voter turn out is becoming a very large factor.



Premier Ed Stelmach, campaigning for votes at seniors residences in town, says he's starting to feel the momentum of the campaign swing in favour of his Tories.

"Our candidates are saying that the mood has changed. Many people are saying 'are you with that guy Ed? Okay you've got my vote'"

However the most recent numbers from Angus Reid tell a different story.

In over all numbers, Ed Stelmach has a fifteen point lead over Kevin Taft, 43% to 28%.

But when you narrow things down to those voters who are absolutely certain to vote the gap narrows to nine points 39% to 30%.

Angus Reid says that gives Stelmach the only negative momentum numbers in his survey at minus fifteen. Meaning voter turn is extra important to Stelmach's chances. His soft support might stay home.



end of Ched Article.



Looks to me like Get The Vote out.



FRom http://calgary.ctv.ca/servlet/RTGAMArticleHTMLTemplate/B,C/20080229/S...



Poll shows shift in political support



calgary.ctv.ca



POSTED AT 12:19 PM Friday, February 29

A new poll shows it is shaping up to be a wild election night in Calgary.



In Calgary, support for the Conservatives stands at 44 per cent among decided voters. The Tories took 52 per cent of the vote in the city in 2004.



Liberal support is at 29 per cent, almost exactly where it was in 2004.



Wildrose Alliance support has jumped to 13 per cent compared to 7 per cent for the Alberta Alliance in 2004.



The Green Party has jumped to 10 per cent compared to 6 per cent in 2004.



The NDP is down to 3 per cent.



This poll was taken February 27 and 28.



end of CTV article.



How close is it in Calgary? really?



From http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3831



No Stars In Alberta Election Campaign

None Of The Parties Have Captured Interest Of Voters Tories Viewed As Best On All Issues, Especially Economy, Crime And Oil Royalties



February 28, 2008



Contact Kyle Braid at (778) 373-5000



Category Ipsos Reid/Global/National Post , Politics & Elections (City/Regional)

Location Canada



Calgary, AB

The campaigns of the Liberals and New Democrats have turned-off as many voters as they have turned-on. Kevin Taft and the Liberals have 19% improved impressions and 21% worsened impressions. For Brian Mason and the NDP, it's 15% improved impressions and 17% worsened impressions.



The governing Progressive Conservatives are the only party with significant negative momentum in the campaign. More than one-third (36%) of Albertans say their impression of Ed Stelmach and the Progressive Conservatives has worsened over the course of the campaign, compared to 13% who say their impression has improved.



In Calgary, the results are slightly positive for the Wildrose Alliance and the Liberals, negative for the NDP and very negative for the Conservatives.



Paul Hinman and the Wildrose Alliance have more improved impressions (19%) than worsened impressions (13%).

Kevin Taft and the Liberals have more improved impressions (22%) than worsened impressions (17%).

Brian Mason and the NDP have more worsened impressions (18%) than improved impressions (9%).

Ed Stelmach and the Progressive Conservatives have more worsened impressions (41%) than improved impressions (8%).



While the Conservatives are struggling with momentum, they are still the top choice of voters to deal with every significant campaign issue. Kevin Taft and the Liberals are second choice on all issues, with the exception of housing affordability, where they finish third (though a statistical tie) to Brian Mason and the NDP.



Ed Stelmach and the Progressive Conservatives do best in relation to their nearest rivals, the Liberals, on the issues of the economy (15 point lead), crime (14 point lead) and oil royalties (12 point lead). The Conservative lead is smaller on the environment (3 point lead), housing affordability (5 point lead over NDP) and education (6 point lead). Of note, is the substantial block of voters (roughly four-in-ten on all issues) who at this point in the campaign are unsure which party is best, or say that none is best.



In Calgary, the Conservatives are rated first (or tied for first) on all issues, with the Liberals being their closest competitor on every issue.



Similar to the overall provincial results, the Tories have their biggest advantage on the issues of the economy (14 point lead), oil royalties (13 point lead) and crime (11 point lead).

The Conservative advantage is smaller on the issues of education (6 point lead) and housing affordability (4 point lead).

* The Conservatives have no real advantage over the Liberals on the issues of climate change/environment (1 point lead) and health care (tie).



These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid online poll conducted between February 25 and 27, 2008. The poll is based on a representative sample of 725 adult Albertans. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Alberta been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Alberta population according to Census data.



For more information on this news release, please contact:

Kyle Braid

Vice-President

Ipsos Reid Public Affairs

778-373-5130

Kyle.Br...@ipsos-reid.com



Missing one or 2 tables however



Change of Impression Over the Course ofthe Campaign



WRA +6

ALP -2

NDP -2

APCP -23



End of REid Poll



Tory impression going down!



I refuse to post Strategic Council, their numbers puts the PCs

higher. Am I correct KAren Gordon?