From http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/features/albertavotes/story.htm...
Calgary giving Tories cold shoulder
Anger at Stelmach could mean Liberal majority in Cowtown
Jason Markusoff, The Edmonton Journal; With files from Renata D'Aliesio, Calgary Herald
Published: 2:02 am
Progressive Conservative supporters get badly outnumbered at all-candidates forums; red Liberal signs break out like rashes on front lawns in many neighbourhoods.
Welcome, for the first time in ages, to a politically volatile Cowtown. This isn't Ralph's world anymore -- and it doesn't seem to be Ed's, either.
Many Calgary voters are cranky and unsure about the new premier from a small town east of Edmonton, who jacked up energy royalties and downsized the city's cabinet clout.
Polls show that it's no longer Edmonton, but Calgary that is the most anti-Tory region in Alberta, though Ed Stelmach's party still narrowly leads among decided voters. Polls have consistently shown a large pool of undecided voters.
The Kevin Taft Liberals hope to build on the party's current four-seat beacRating 2ead in Calgary, and possibly take a majority of the city's 23 seats.
Long gone are the days that Liberals were perceived as devils, said James Maxim, campaign manager for Darshan Kang, who lost in northeast Calgary-McCall by 300 votes in 2004, and may be one of the Liberals' best shots in the city.
"It's like the Tory blue is being a little bit diluted by newcomers moving from other parts of the country to Calgary and making an informed decision, and that could lead to some possible victories," Maxim said.
Tory insiders say volunteers are more scarce, and many are disheartened. But Stelmach isn't going down without a fight in what he calls the "Conservative heartland" and the "heart of the new West," vowing to try to retake the Liberal seats and appoint more Calgary cabinet ministers.
The premier and his charter bus will make 11 campaign stops around Calgary today, mostly for pep talks and appearances at campaign offices. Taft will hold a rally.
After watching a candidates' debate in the downtown swing riding of Calgary-Buffalo, riding resident Jon Palmer said he's frustrated about the stream of homeless people who break into his condominium complex. He's undecided about who to vote for, but keen for change. "I think for a real long time in Alberta we have really suffered from not having a strong opposition," Palmer said.
About 80 people move to Calgary each day, straining hospitals, roads, housing and schools. The health region's executives last week demanded action on a $115-million deficit, evoking memories of Mayor Dave Bronconnier's spat with the Tory government over funding last summer, which Stelmach countered with a 10-year funding plan for cities.
But the premier's decision to raise oil and gas royalties had many in Calgary's energy company offices complaining he doesn't understand their industry. That feeling is expected to push some grumpy voters to the Wildrose Alliance, who disavow the royalty hikes, which could split the right-wing vote and help the Liberals.
"The climate has to be receptive and the soil has to be fertile for something to happen, and I think in Calgary it is," said Doreen Barrie, a political scientist and author of The Other Alberta: Decoding a Political Enigma.
"There's so much dissatisfaction to be harvested. And Calgary's not used to being ignored."
Liberals have never had more than four Calgary MLAs before; a victory in former premier Ralph Klein's former Calgary-Elbow seat was the party's highlight in Stelmach's rookie year.
The Tories are running hard in that riding with lawyer Alison Redford, one of many of the party's Calgary hopefuls who offer the city a cosmopolitan, young and progressive image.
"That's the new team we're building here, people that have been disengaged and we're bringing them on side," said Calgary-Montrose candidate Manmeet Bhullar, 27, hoping to replace veteran MLA Hung Pham in a bitterly contested riding.
Much as Klein hurt the Tories in past Edmonton races, Stelmach isn't helping in a city where many didn't back him in the PC leadership race, one Tory operative complained.
"At the door, he's the issue: we get a lot of, 'I like you, but not your leader,' " he said.
Barrie said Taft hasn't drawn many voters into his fold, and the issues haven't either in a race she called "bland and blander."
From http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/local/story.html?id=05e46d...
Is Tuesday Taft's?
Liberal leader predicts victory
Darcy Henton, edmontonjournal.com
Published: 2:11 pm
EDMONTON - Liberal Leader Kevin Taft says Albertans want change and they will wake up to a bright new day Tuesday with a new Liberal government.
"What we heard on the doorsteps over and over was exactly that - that our message (It's Time) captured the public mood," Taft said today. "More than half of Albertans think it's time for a new government and our message just connected."
He said the desire for change was the number one issue of the campaign.
The Liberal leader dropped by two Mill Woods temples Sunday where he urged New Democratic Party voters to cast their votes for Liberals this election to throw out the Progressive Conservatives who have been in power nearly 37 years.
He said voters can only vote in opposition members if they vote for Brian Mason's NDP party - but if they vote Liberal they can change the government.
"Brian has always played for third place," he said. "We're in this for the gold medal."
Taft was optimistic his party will make inroads in Calgary and hold its seats "and grow" in Edmonton "and I think we will make breakthroughs in other areas, too."
"Calgary started feeling different in 2004," he said. "It's going to feel a lot different Tuesday morning."
From http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/features/albertavotes/story.htm...
Edmonton still up for grabs
City's undecided voters could extend Tory dynasty -- or end it
Darcy Henton, The Edmonton Journal; With files from Jason Markusoff
Published: 6:42 am
It's people like city dweller Mark Woronuk who hold the fate of the 37-year-old Progressive Conservative dynasty in their hands -- and more specifically, whether or not the Tories make inroads in the province's capital.
The south Edmonton resident is among the 25 per cent of Edmonton voters identified in a Leger Marketing poll this week who haven't decided where to put their vote.
The huge percentage of undecided voters, along with the massive influx of newcomers and the appeal of a northern Alberta premier, could all be factors in whether Albertans decide to change their government or change their representation in Edmonton.
The capital city has often been dubbed "Redmonton" as a result of its tradition of electing opposition members of the legislature.
Premier Ed Stelmach has vowed to put the "Ed" back into Edmonton.
Currently opposition members hold all but three of the city's 18 seats.
But the Leger telephone poll suggests that could change Monday.
The poll, conducted Feb. 21 to 25, suggests that 39 per cent of city voters support Stelmach's Conservatives while 21 per cent support Kevin Taft's Liberals and nearly nine per cent support Brian Mason's NDP.
That suggests there could be an 11th straight Tory majority.
Woronuk, a 28-year-old policeman who was born and raised in the city, has never known anything but a Conservative provincial government.
He voted Conservative previously when Ralph Klein was the premier, but he's not so sure about Stelmach.
None of the other leaders has grabbed him either.
"Like a lot of people, I'm kind of on the fence with Ed," he said when a Liberal candidate came door-knocking this week. "I will do some research and look into the core values of each party and make a decision from there."
Chaldeans Mensah, who teaches political science at Grant MacEwan College, said rookie premier Stelmach may receive some sympathy from city residents because of the way he has been treated by the Calgary establishment.
"You hear people say: 'Give the guy a chance. He's been in just over a year. Whatever his foibles are, he deserves a chance to prove himself,' " Mensah said. "There's a sense this individual hasn't been given the opportunity to demonstrate his leadership."
But Liberal Leader Kevin Taft said his candidates don't sense any Stelmach momentum in the capital.
"We're in a race to the finish line, but we're not picking up anything unusual," he said.
Taft noted that in Edmonton, his party has an advantage it didn't have in 2004 -- 10 incumbents and strong riding-by-riding organizations.
Edmonton-McLung Liberal incumbent Mo Elsalhy, who knocked off Tory cabinet minister Mark Norris in 2004, said he has heard voters express sympathy for Stelmach.
"Very infrequently somebody says: 'Mr. Stelmach deserves a chance.' I tell them he has been the premier for 14 months. How much more time do you need to give him?"
Alberta Liberals are confident they can hold all of their seats in the city, but the Tories are hopeful they can take Edmonton-Meadowlark, where incumbent Liberal Maurice Tougas has stepped down, and Edmonton-Manning, where former Liberal Dan Backs is running as an independent after being expelled from the Liberal caucus.
With recent polls in their favour, Edmonton's Tory candidates are exuding a quiet confidence, but they say they've also been working very, very hard.
Health minister Dave Hancock, who won narrowly in Edmonton-Whitemud in 2004, said he hopes to benefit from a higher profile after taking a run at the party leadership in 2006.
He said voters in his riding are generally supportive of the new premier. "People have their concerns about presentation, but he's getting marks for being willing to step into the middle of controversial issues and deal with them in a thoughtful way," Hancock said.
Tory candidate Gene Zwozdesky, an associate cabinet minister and the incumbent for Edmonton Mill Creek, said Stelmach earned points with voters in his riding with his performance during the leader's debate. "Any time you can stand your ground against three opponents, that's appreciated."
Edmonton-Castle Downs Tory incumbent Thomas Lukaszuk, who won by only three votes after a protracted recount in 2004, said he never stopped campaigning.
He said there are 8,000 new eligible voters in his riding this time and he's been out meeting them as often as he could.
"Most people who come here are happy to be here," he said. "They're not likely to stage a revolution. They like having a job and a house."
But Liberal Chris Kibermanis, who lost the squeaker, has also been pounding the sidewalk.
"I think we'll have a very close election again," he said. "There's a real mood for change. If we get the vote out we'll be successful."
The retirement of popular NDP MLA Raj Pannu in Edmonton-Strathcona has opened the door for rivals in Old Strathcona, but NDP candidate Rachel Notley, the daughter of former NDP leader Grant Notley, has been campaigning hard for months.
"There are not a lot of people saying: 'I'm just so happy to be part of the Alberta Advantage and I can't wait to vote the Tories in for another 37 years,' " she said.
Darcy Henton, With files from Jennifer Fong, Journal staff., The Edmonton Journal
Published: Saturday, March 01
EDMONTON - When Marilyn Clements moved to this province from B.C. two years ago, she expected to vote in the next Alberta election.
Now, she's not so sure.
Clements is one of 280,000 newcomers who have flooded Alberta since 2005. They've arrived in such massive numbers in some ridings that they could have a dramatic effect on the result.
They've come for jobs and new lives. Many, instead, have found a tight housing market, a shortage of day-care services, difficulty finding family doctors and long lines at hospitals.
Clements, 53, says if her husband wasn't working in the oil and gas business, they wouldn't be here because Alberta is too expensive.
Political analysts say the newcomers, who have ballooned voters' lists in suburban ridings, are the mystery card in Monday's provincial election because they have no traditional loyalties to the governing party and no prejudices.
They could sock it to the governing Tories in tight urban ridings, knocking off a string of key cabinet ministers, or they could send the Conservatives to an 11th majority.
But will they vote?
"We don't know," says Chaldeans Mensah, who teaches political science at Grant MacEwan College. "It's the unknown factor."
Incumbent Conservative MLAs say the influx is bound to boost their fortunes because the newcomers were lured by Alberta's prosperity.
"By and large people who have moved here have purchased a house and made an investment," says Edmonton-Whitemud Tory candidate Dave Hancock, the province's health minister who ran unsuccessfully in the party leadership race.
"They're working. They're enjoying the economic opportunities and they're excited about being here, and that usually translates into support."
Harry Hillier, a University of Calgary professor of sociology, says there could be a stark difference in the voting choices of people who have lived here a long time and those who moved to Alberta after 2005.
"People who came here up to 2005 were people who experienced Alberta at its best and therefore people who tend to feel that the party in power must be doing something right, and they will tend to support the Conservative party," Hillier says.
Those who arrived later and experienced the dark side of the boom may have the opposite view, he says.
"These are people who are more likely to take a critical view of government."
Hana Razga, 60, who is running for the NDP in Edmonton-Whitemud, says a lot of voters in the new neighbourhoods are undecided because they don't know the political land-scape.
"Some people are coming in here to make money, and some say they don't have any voting loyalty because they haven't been here long enough," she says.
"I don't think the influx favours the incumbent because a lot of people who come in from other parts of the country are concerned about affordability."
Many say they don't know where to park their vote.
Clements, who left Surrey, B.C., two years ago, says she was a card-carrying NDP supporter before she moved here, but now she's reluctant to tell anyone about her former political affiliation.
Darcy Henton, With files from Jennifer Fong, Journal staff., The Edmonton Journal
Published: Saturday, March 01
"I was sadly disappointed to find out the NDP had basically no presence here and no clout," says Clements, 53, who lives in Fort Saskatchewan with her husband and her son. "I was kind of shocked and amazed."
Clements says there have been few public forums in her riding, where Premier Ed Stelmach is the incumbent. No politicians have knocked on her door or left election material in her mailbox.
She doesn't know if she'll vote. "I guess I will decide on March 3."
The lack of adequate information about candidates and party platforms was a common complaint heard from many newcomers.
Fort McMurray resident Derek Rolstone, who moved from Vancouver in 2005, says newcomers have some responsibility to educate themselves.
"They don't have an excuse. They have to seek out the information."
The influx of newcomers has made it tougher on candidates who have had to identify and track down their votes.
It has been especially difficult in Edmonton-Whitemud, which has seen some the most incredible growth in Alberta. Statistics Canada census figures show the riding's population jumped to 56,596 in 2006 from 37,770 in 2001. The voters list grew to 37,613 in November 2006 from 31,027 in March 2005.
Edmonton-Whitemud Liberal candidate Nancy Cavanaugh says she's knocked on 5,000 doors, but there are more than 23,000 homes in her riding.
"How it will affect the election is a good question," she says. "But the truth is, all of these people are just people like any other Albertans and they have the same issues."
Out door-knocking in the riding Friday, she found many residents didn't know where they were supposed to vote.
While Elections Alberta officials contend they're coping with the deluge of new voters, Liberal Leader Kevin Taft has slammed their elections planning.
"There's been some real problems with enumeration and a lot of other issues around the election machine. In fact, our campaign is having to spend hours correcting mistakes in enumeration," he said.
"We're really, really concerned that the basic mechanisms of an election are not in very good shape in Alberta."
Elections Alberta spokeswoman Teresa Atterbury says Alberta is growing faster than any other part of Canada, but that hasn't been a problem.
"We think we're handling it. It's true that growth is maybe higher than it's been in the past, but there are mechanisms in place to deal with that growth."
From http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/features/albertavotes/story.htm...
Tories feel the wrath of Cowtown
Conservative candidates find out the hard way that Calgary remains 'mad at Ed' epicentre
Jason Fekete, Calgary Herald; Canwest News Service
Published: Saturday, March 01
CALGARY - Some Calgary Conservative candidates say they're facing the wrath of voters who don't believe Premier Ed Stelmach understands the city.
Several incumbent Tories said they're having to ease concerns about Stelmach, but firmly believe his accomplishments during his first 14 months in office will win support at the ballot box.
Heather Forsyth, who is seeking re-election and was a cabinet minister in Ralph Klein's government, said she's hearing "over and over and over" from people who aren't happy with Stelmach.
"My response to that particular question is the premier is not on the ballot. I'm on the ballot."
Forsyth said the anger goes back to Stelmach's first day in office, when he appointed a rural-heavy cabinet that reduced the number of Calgary ministers. "It hasn't gone away," she said of voter discontent.
Indeed, Forsyth suggested the mood at the doorsteps is different than anything she's experienced during her 15 years as MLA. She is worried about her fate on election day.
"There seems to be an uneasiness out there," she said.
Campaigning in Calgary on Friday, Stelmach said he hasn't heard those complaints from others.
"In speaking to the candidates this week when we were in Calgary . . . they are telling me the doors are very positive and things are going in the right direction," he said.
"It's voter turnout and making sure we get the vote out."
Stelmach will be in Calgary today to launch an all-out blitz, as he's scheduled to make 11 campaign stops. He'll make a few more stops Sunday before heading to his hometown of Andrew.
Today's tour doesn't include a stop at Forsyth's office. Asked whether she's happy with Stelmach's larger provincial campaign, Forsyth wouldn't comment.
Tory incumbent Art Johnston said he's receiving lots of positive feedback at the door, but has heard anti-Stelmach sentiment. He insisted Stelmach has been an activist premier who's addressed long-standing concerns such as increasing resource royalties and resolving the teachers' unfunded pension liability.
"There's some people that want Ralph (Klein) back, and it's not going to happen, but you have to let them vent," Johnston said, urging his caucus colleagues to rally behind the leader.
All but one Calgary Conservative MLA backed former provincial treasurer Jim Dinning in his Tory leadership loss to Stelmach. Johnston backed Dinning, but said it's time to move on and recognize what Stelmach has done.
"Maybe we have to stop trying to take a popular stance with people and pick up for Ed," he added.
Anger being lobbed at Stelmach and the Conservatives is most potent in Calgary, which is the "crankiest" part of Alberta, said political scientist Bruce Foster, chairman of policy studies at Mount Royal College.
"Calgary is the epicentre of 'We're mad at Ed,' " Foster said, noting it's partly due to unpopular policy and cabinet decisions, and being compared with Klein.
Despite the problems facing Stelmach in Calgary, Foster said the opposition likely "doesn't have what it takes to entice people into making a wholesale change."
Back on the campaign trail, Tory candidate Ron Stevens said he's also faced some heat, but is confident voters will put their faith in the PC leader.
"Ed Stelmach is not as well understood in this campaign as Ralph Klein was in the last," Stevens said.
Cindy Ady, longtime Conservative incumbent in Calgary-Shaw, said she's faced a swath of voters who aren't happy with Stelmach and his leadership.
"There's conversation around that, for sure, in my riding. They're still trying to themselves understand Ed and understand where he's heading as a leader," Ady said.
Ady's rebuttal to those concerns is that Stelmach has tackled tough issues and possesses the leadership qualities needed to lead Alberta through some challenging times.
Looking for an extra boost on the campaign trail, Ady said she asked Klein last week if he would come door-knocking with her, but he politely declined.
From http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/features/albertavotes/story.htm...
Stelmach a nice guy in middle of ugly mess
Calgary faction clamours for premier's scalp
Paula Simons, The Edmonton Journal
Published: Saturday, March 01
I like Ed Stelmach. It's hard not to. He's polite, thoughtful, hard-working, down-to-earth. Catch him at the right moment, and he's even pretty funny.
I'd love it if he moved in next door. He'd be the kind of guy who would shovel your walk for you after a bad snowfall or give you a boost if your battery died.
And he's a terribly easy guy to underestimate. That's how he won the Tory leadership. While the attention was focused on the high-profile Jim Dinning and Ted Morton campaigns, Stelmach was quietly, doggedly orchestrating his strategic victory, using the personal networks he spent years building across northern and central Alberta to bring out his voters.
In his year as premier, Stelmach governed with the same kind of stolid, solid approach, quietly cleaning up some of the worst messes left behind by his predecessor. Funding new infrastructure, creating a land-use planning model for metro Edmonton, fixing the teachers unfunded pension liability, trying to repair our absurdly dysfunctional and outdated oil and gas royalty system, establishing all-party legislative committees.
It wasn't sexy stuff, but it was badly needed and badly overdue. And if Stelmach didn't always go far enough, at least he seemed to be moving, cautiously, in the right direction.
On top of that, there's something about the shoddy way Stelmach's been sandbagged through this campaign by some of Calgary's leading political and business interests brings out my sense of hometown loyalty.
The Calgary Herald's lead business columnist, Deborah Yedlin, summed up their attitude in a column earlier this week: "When the business community goes to vote Monday, the only agenda it will have is one of changing the leadership of the provincial Conservative party. Either it will happen by voting for the Conservative candidate in their riding -- with the understanding that the support is being conditionally given for the purpose of starting an internal leadership review -- or by casting a protest vote that will see the Conservatives end up with a smaller number of seats." See SIMONS / B4 "Either way, the premier has lost the confidence of the business community and this election -- no matter what the outcome -- will almost certainly start the process of finding his successor." Gosh, with Tory "friends" like these, Stelmach hardly needs opposition enemies.
But despite all of Stelmach's earnest worthiness, despite my disgust at watching a bunch of Calgary insiders gang up on an Edmonton outlier, it's hard to deny that after 361/2 years in power, the Progressive Conservatives are a tired, lacklustre party, driven by infighting and largely devoid of fresh ideas. For Stelmach's campaign to insist a vote for him is a vote for change is like saying Raoul Casto will bring change to Cuba.
This is a province with a mind-boggling amount of potential, a province on the cusp of global greatness.
We need leaders with the vision, ambition and guts to manage our growth, sustain our prosperity for the future, preserve our environment, and restore the integrity of our battered democratic institutions.
It's time we stopped running this place like a banana republic, where Conservative MLAs, filled with a bloated sense of entitlement, treat the provincial treasury like their party purse, where the civil service has become so politicized we think it's normal that the party in power appoints every returning officer and that senior bureaucrats take "faux" leaves of absence from their allegedly impartial, apolitical "public service" jobs to campaign for the Tories.
Which leads to the questions. Are Kevin Taft and the Liberals up to the task? And are enough voters ready to take a chance on a new governing party? This election campaign was Taft's chance to prove himself. After four years on the job and a somewhat shaky start, he has grown into his role as leader of the Opposition.
He stepped up to lead the Liberals when no one else wanted the job. Now, he's made the transition from caretaker, from another perfectly nice walk-shovelling neighbour to a legitimate premier-in-waiting.
The Liberals have run a smart campaign. They have recruited some strong candidates, with some particular stars in Calgary.
They've developed a comprehensive, coherent and credible policy platform. They have successfully presented themselves, not as a party just hoping to win more opposition seats than Brian Mason's New Democrats, but as a party ready to govern.
But though the Liberals have run a very good campaign, they haven't run a great one. They have looked sharp, professional and competent. Yet despite the Tory's own lacklustre performance, the Liberals haven't succeeded in truly galvanizing voters, especially outside the cities.
Nor has the Wild Rose Alliance succeeded in channelling popular discontent on the right. Not enough Albertans are angry enough.
In a province this rich, perhaps it's just too easy to be complacent.
Even if the Liberals and New Democrats between them take every urban seat, even if the Wild Rose party pick up a handful of rural ridings, Stelmach's quite likely to see himself returned to power, albeit with a significantly reduced majority.
Given the way our seats are apportioned, given the disproportionate number of rural MLAs, it's even possible the Liberals could win the popular vote and still not form the government.
Still, I don't necessarily envy Stelmach the prospect of sitting in a legislature across from a real and rejuvenated opposition, facing rebellion within his own ranks.
Alberta's political monolith has begun to finally begun to fracture, along both geographic and ideological lines. And as the chips fall where they may, a few may land quite hard on Ed Stelmach's perfectly pleasant head.
Panic creeps into Alberta Tory ranks as election nears
Don Martin, Canwest News Service Published: Saturday, March 01, 2008
OTTAWA -- After picking up bad Conservative vibes from his political heartland, Prime Minister Stephen Harper summoned several southern Alberta MPs to his office for a reality check.
The mighty Alberta Progressive Conservative dynasty in trouble? Implausible, if not impossible.
But the confided consensus of MPs was that Premier Ed Stelmach is about to lose a bunch of seats in Monday's provincial election and, if the large undecided vote shifts to the opposition or stays home, perhaps lurch into the nightmare scenario of becoming Alberta's first-ever minority government.
Panic has crept into Conservative ranks, but the fret is most intensely felt in Calgary where the party's 37-year reign is facing its most dangerous electoral test in, well, 37 years.
The Ed Effect has gone toxic in the heart of the oilpatch, a doorstep rejection of Stelmach's folksy low-coherence sincerity as the sign of someone well over their head politically and out of touch with urban Alberta personally.
"We have to work hard for the win this time," confides a veteran Conservative strategist. "That's not something we're used to doing in this party. Usually we sit back and wait for the polls to close to claim victory."
Calgary MLAs are bracing to lose seats that had come with a lifetime Tory guarantee until the writ was dropped last month by the unlikely rookie who replaced Ralph Klein.
The reaction to Stelmach has been so negative, there are already speculative rumbles of who would replace him after he gets savaged in the mandatory review of his leadership in two years.
Sustainable Resources Minister Ted Morton is seen as an early contender. And if there was a draft of sufficient depth to bring on a coronation, former treasurer Jim Dinning might be convinced to take another run at the top.
But to even whisper Conservative leadership change on the eve of an election defies all logic in a province where the economy is roaring and loyalty to political parties runs unfathomably deep.
Consider the short history of long reigns by Alberta parties:
Liberal: 1905-1921
United Farmers of Alberta: 1921-1935
Social Credit: 1935-1971
Progressive Conservative: 1971-200?
Even if, as expected, the Conservatives survive to control the legislature, the spectre of a party-changing rollover in four years is in ascendancy.
The right-wing Wildrose Alliance, a smidgen of a party now, and leader Paul Hinman are suddenly viewed with considerable alarm by Conservatives.
If that party can toehold a handful of seats in this election, keep itself from drifting into ideological extremes and face off against Stelmach in four years, well, that might be the set-up scenario that ushered the Conservatives to power under Peter Lougheed in 1971.
Beyond the sound of the Alberta balloon hissing economic air and the premier's controversial decision on a new royalty regime Stelmach is also facing a demographic sea change in Alberta. The influx of new voters from across Canada who weren't issued a Conservative membership for a birth certificate have few if any recollections of the psyche-scarring National Energy Program. They are not afraid to gamble on party alternatives.
If the Conservatives escape election night only down a single-digit count of seats, they should send a massive bouquet of flowers to Liberal leader Kevin Taft.
The salvation of any weak government is always a weaker opposition -- and while Taft is often unfairly scorned for falling between bland and boring, he does not appear to have the royal jelly for premier consideration.
That's why a quarter of the voters were still in limbo during the final week of the campaign -- they want to flip Stelmach the electoral finger, but can't bring themselves to embrace such a flaccid alternative.
That's why nobody can realistically predict an election outcome with so much whimsical decision-making still at play. The result could be anything from a modest seat loss to a wholesale government defeat.
But that ensures something very new will be on the ballot when the one-party state of Alberta goes to the polls on Monday -- doubt about the outcome.
He's uninspiring and sometimes clueless but the alternative is worse
Colby Cosh, National Post Published: Friday, February 29, 2008
A few days from now, I'm going to do something I haven't done in close to a decade: vote for the Alberta Progressive Conservatives in a general election.
I could not possibly exercise my democratic rights with less pleasure. It's becoming clear that Premier Ed Stelmach, chosen by a divided PC party as a middle option between the technocratic Jim Dinning and the right-wing insurgent Ted Morton, was a poorer choice than either front-runner would have been. English is a second language that Stelmach speaks more like a fourth or fifth. He has cracked down on smoking, hurting businesses on a health care-savings pretext that is contradicted by all the relevant evidence. His flinging of $2-billion at the country's highest-paid teachers to fund voluntarily accepted pension liabilities in advance of the election was an act of monstrous cynicism. He is clueless about civil liberties, and has managed his caucus like an inept substitute teacher.
But the Alberta Liberals are no better, and indeed would be much worse on many of these points. What distinguishes Stelmach's Conservatives from the opposition is a belief in the power of compounding economic growth. The Tories have made Alberta a place that attracts talent and capital from across Canada and around the world. Kevin Taft's Liberals look at the province's booming economy and see only problems.
Recently Taft, in a tête-à-tête with the Edmonton Journal editorial board, looked forward to "the morning people wake up and realize that northeast of Edmonton there's one of the largest petrochemical and industrial complexes in the world, and to the southeast there's a strip coal mine covering 100 square miles ... and there's no land-use planning." The quote captures the man's style neatly. He openly accuses the voters of stupidity; he wishes some central authority had interfered with the growth of the Refinery Row-Scotford belt and the Highvale mine; he looks upon enterprise and sees defilement. Are the tens of thousands of workers he's talking about all supposed to get jobs as land-use planners? Perhaps, they can find work as caddies when Alberta becomes a quarter-million-square-mile golf course?
To hear Taft, you would think that every day in Alberta was a life-or-death struggle with a poisoned environment and post-apocalyptic levels of public infrastructure and services. So why does Alberta have a large positive net balance of immigration from every other province over the last 10 years? It's not just because of $100 oil; the demographic tidal wave peaked in 1998, when benchmark prices were below $20. Tens of thousands are voting with their feet for a way of life. And the Taft Liberals are opposed to everything that defines that way of life economically; they yearn for stronger unions, more business regulation, ubiquitous social housing, generous welfare for capable adults and aggressive environmentalism. God forbid there might remain one refuge in Confederation from multi-tentacled Ontario-style government.
The Liberals are likely to have their best election since 1993. The mass immigration they can't quite explain helps them, diminishing the influence of Trudeauphobic native-Albertans a little more every year. Their characterization of Alberta as a giant failure zone helps them with voters who really do face special pressures from the boom. And Stelmach has been enough of a disappointment to unite the right-wing opposition under the banner of a single protest party.
So why vote for his candidate? I know how it looks: Like some doddering old Stalin-era Bolshevik, I have spent a decade grumbling about The Party, but at the first sign of crisis I hurtle toward its bosom like a coward. My vote won't even mean much in my inner-city constituency of Edmonton-Crystal Meth-Sextrade; New Democrat incumbent David Eggen, a friendly chap who is probably his party's next leader, should win handily.
But on the other hand, like an Old Bolshevik, I am increasingly infuriated by the pact between external critics of Alberta and the Alberta Liberal opposition. Even relatively conservative Canadians outside our borders are fond of sniggering at our 36 years of uninterrupted Conservative government, as if we had not exercised our judgment anew at each election and were not reaping rewards for it now.
What part of the Conservative legacy should we be ashamed of, exactly? The elite public schools, patronized by even the richest families and admired continent-wide? The increasingly outstanding universities, tech schools and research facilities? The cushy working-class salaries? Our liveable, growing twin metropolises? Should we regret that we have dozens of companies quietly providing services and supplies to the worldwide petroleum business? Or perhaps denounce the new non-energy business champions of the province -- WestJet, BioWare, Matrikon, the Forzani and Katz Groups?
No, I'm not voting for Ed Stelmach and the Conservatives because I feel good about doing it. I'm doing it as a small gesture in favour of a party and a premier that, despite enormous failings, have one outstanding qualification to govern Alberta: They like the place.
National Post
ColbyCosh@gmail.com
My reaction Colby - these guys need a rest ; time for them to sit in opposition
FRom http://calsun.canoe.ca/News/Election/2008/03/01/4886329-sun.html
Sat, March 1, 2008
Pundits say landslide unlikely
UPDATED: 2008-03-01 04:14:47 MST
By SUN MEDIA
Heading to the electoral wire, most pundits don't expect any party to come close to matching the loftiest share of the popular vote ever recorded in an Alberta provincial election.
The high mark occurred in 1975 when the Tories, led by Peter Lougheed, captured 62.7% of all ballots cast.
That landslide was almost repeated by Lougheed again in 1982 when his party cornered 62.3% of the vote and by one of his successors, Ralph Klein in 2001 with 61.9%.
Klein's numbers were shaved considerably in 2004 when the PC's took 46.8%.
NO-SHOW LIST RELEASED
Alberta Liberals are keeping a roll call on Tory absences at political forums.
Keeping tabs on PC no-shows, the Grits yesterday released what they call an incomplete list of 14 that includes Premier Ed Stelmach ducking a Feb. 27 debate in his Edmonton-area riding.
"This makes us nostalgic for Ralph Klein, who at least showed up to local forums in his own constituency in three of the four elections he was PC leader," reads a Liberal Party statement.
POLL WORKER GAP FILLED
Elections Alberta has filled a staffing gap at Calgary polling stations that appeared earlier in the campaign.
A shortfall of 500 electoral workers in the city no longer exists, said Teresa Atterbury, spokeswoman for Elections Alberta.
It should take most voters 15 minutes or less to cast a ballot, she said, adding the busiest times will be between 4:30 p.m and 7 p.m.
From http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/features/albertavotes/story.htm...
Taft predicts Liberals will peak during final weekend of campaign
Poll shows gap narrowing in recent days
Kelly Cryderman, Calgary Herald; Canwest News Service
Published: 3:05 am
FORT MCMURRAY - Liberal Leader Kevin Taft made a series of promises across northern Alberta on Friday, including commitments for upgrades to a deadly highway south of Grande Cache and an additional MLA for the people of Fort McMurray.
Polls suggest the mood among Alberta voters has changed little during the past two weeks. But with just a weekend left before the vote, Taft maintains his party has yet to hit its peak.
"I'm expecting to see significant shift over the weekend," Taft said in Fort McMurray. "Our candidates are feeling it on the doorsteps. Fifty per cent or more of Albertans want a change of government and they're going to speak on Monday."
Taft was referring to a new Angus Reid poll of 753 people, conducted over Feb. 27 and 28, that found that the opinions of voters have barely budged.
Some aspects of the poll look positive for Taft. Among voters who say they have chosen their party and say they will vote Monday, the PC party has 39 per cent support, and the Liberals at 30 per cent. The NDP is at 13 per cent support and the Wildrose Alliance is at 10. The Angus Reid poll has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points and is considered accurate 19 times out of 20.
Other polls have shown the gap between the governing Tories and Liberals to be much wider.
The lack of movement among Alberta voters must be frustrating to Taft in the campaign's final days, said University of Lethbridge political scientist Peter McCormick.
"I think he's run a very strong campaign," McCormick said, adding Taft has done a good job of presenting himself as a candidate with new ideas.
"Albertans are not listening. But I think that says more about Albertans than Kevin Taft."
Earlieer in Grande Cache, Taft said Highway 40 would get a series of improvements, including widening, within the next three years.
His chartered plane also made stops in Grande Prairie and the Wabasca-Desmarais area.
In Fort McMurray, Taft delved into the tricky politics of electoral boundaries and said a government under his leadership would give the people in the sprawling riding of Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo an additional one or two MLAs to make sure the fast-growing area receives fair representation.
He said it would be up to an appointed commission as to which other parts of Alberta would lose seats to ensure Fort McMurray got more.
"It is the economic spark-plug of this country," Taft said of the municipality and region. "This is a special case and it needs special consideration."