Ipsos-Reid Poll
From http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3819
Alberta Tories Well Out Front In Election Where Few Voters Feel Good
About Their Choice
Progressive Conservatives (49%) Hold Huge Lead Over Liberals (28%), NDP
(14%), Wildrose Alliance (5%) and Greens (4%)
Only Three-in-Ten (28%) Voters Feel Good About Their Choice
Progressive Conservative Support Also Most Firm
February 19, 2008
Contact Kyle Braid at (778) 373-5000
Category Ipsos Reid/Global/National Post , Politics & Elections (City/Regional)
Location Canada
Press Release Detailed Tables
Related Information
For more information, contact:
Kyle Braid
Recent Polls & Research
February 16: Steady As She Goes: Election Rhetoric Fails To Sway Voters
February 12: Majority (52%) Says Price Of Basic Food Staples ^QNot
Affordable^R For Average Canadian
January 31: Majority (53%) Of Canadians Support New Government
Policy Not To Automatically Seek Clemency For Canadians On Death Row
Abroad
Calgary, AB ^V As the Alberta provincial election campaign reaches its
midpoint, a new Ipsos Reid/Global Calgary poll shows the Progressive
Conservatives well on their way to another majority government. The
governing Tories have the support of 49% of the province^Rs decided
voters. The Liberals are next best at 28%, followed by the NDP at 14%,
Wildrose Alliance at 5% and Greens at 4%. These results exclude the
two-in-ten (21%) Albertans who are undecided or express no preference.
Albertans are not feeling enthusiastic about their choice at this point
in the campaign. Only three-in-ten (28%) Albertans say they ^Sfeel good
about their choice of party or candidate^T. Seven-in-ten (69%) say they
are ^Sjust making the best choice from the options available^T.
Not only do the Tories have a sizeable lead, their voters are also the
most firm in their support. Only 22% of Progressive Conservative voters
say it is ^Svery likely^T or ^Ssomewhat likely^T that they will change their
mind and end up voting for a different party on Election Day. This
compares to 35% of voters for other political parties.
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid telephone poll conducted between
February 14 and 17, 2008. The poll is based on a randomly selected
sample of 804 adult Albertans. With a sample of this size, the results
sample of 804 adult Albertans. With a sample of this size, the results
are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out
of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of
Alberta been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions
and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were
statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex
composition reflects that of the actual Alberta population according to
Census data.
Progressive Conservatives (49%) Hold Huge Lead Over Liberals (28%), NDP
(14%), Wildrose Alliance (5%) and Greens (4%)
The Progressive Conservatives have a huge lead among decided voters at
the midpoint of the campaign. The Tories have the support of 49% of
Alberta^Rs decided voters, well ahead of the second place Liberals at
28%. The NDP is in third with 14% support, followed by Wildrose Alliance
at 5% and the Green Party at 4%. These results exclude the two-in-ten
(21%) Albertans who are undecided or express no preference.
The current results are very similar to the 2004 election outcome where
the Progressive Conservatives garnered 47% of the votes, compared to 29%
for the Liberals. The biggest difference from the 2004 outcome is that
the NDP is now up 4 points (14% today vs. 10% in 2004) and Wildrose
Alliance is down 4 points (5% today vs. 9% for Alberta Alliance in
2004).
The regional results breakdown as follows:
In Calgary, the Progressive Conservatives (42%) hold an 8 point
lead over the Liberals (34%). The other parties include NDP (10%),
Wildrose Alliance (8%) and Green Party (7%).
In Edmonton, the Progressive Conservatives (47%) hold a 20 point
lead over the Liberals (27%). The other parties include NDP (19%), Green
Party (4%) and Wildrose Alliance (2%).
In the Rest of Alberta, the Progressive Conservatives (60%) hold a
38 point lead over the Liberals (22%). The other parties include NDP
(12%), Wildrose Alliance (6%) and Green Party (2%).
Only Three-in-Ten (28%) Voters Feel Good About Their Choice
Albertans are not overly enthusiastic about their choice in this
election. Only three-in-ten (28%) Albertans say they ^Sfeel good about
their choice of party or candidate^T. Seven-in-ten (69%) say they are
^Sjust making the best choice from the options available^T.
The results are consistent for the two major party contenders.
Three-in-ten Progressive Conservative voters (31%) and Liberal voters
(28%) say they ^Sfeel good about their choice^T.
Progressive Conservative Support Also Most Firm
Three-in-ten (29%) voters say they are either ^Svery likely^T (4%) or
^Ssomewhat likely^T (25%) to change their mind and end up voting for a
different party on Election Day.
Progressive Conservative voters are the most committed to their party
choice. Only two-in-ten (22%) Conservative voters say they are ^Svery
likely^T or ^Ssomewhat likely^T to switch to another party. In contrast,
roughly one-in-three (35%) supporters of other parties (including 34% of
Liberal voters) say they are ^Svery likely^T or ^Ssomewhat likely^T to
change their mind.
And Conservative voters are also just as likely as supporters of other
parties to say they will actually get out and vote on Election Day.
Sixty-one percent of Conservative voters say it is ^Sabsolutely certain^T
that they will go to the polls and vote. This is essentially the same as
the 62% of other party supporters (including 61% of Liberal party
Progressive Conservative voters are the most committed to their party
choice. Only two-in-ten (22%) Conservative voters say they are ^Svery
likely^T or ^Ssomewhat likely^T to switch to another party. In contrast,
roughly one-in-three (35%) supporters of other parties (including 34% of
Liberal voters) say they are ^Svery likely^T or ^Ssomewhat likely^T to
change their mind.
And Conservative voters are also just as likely as supporters of other
parties to say they will actually get out and vote on Election Day.
Sixty-one percent of Conservative voters say it is ^Sabsolutely certain^T
that they will go to the polls and vote. This is essentially the same as
the 62% of other party supporters (including 61% of Liberal party
voters) who say they are ^Sabsolutely certain^T to vote.
Factoring in that 20% undecided
PConvictative 39.2% Liberals 22.4% Undediced 20% NDP 11.2% WRA 4% and
Green 3.2%.
Looks to me anyone's eleciton.
Also the Numbers out of Edmotnon and Calgary, are they correct?
Too bad Rest of Alberta is not broken up into NorthEast, NorthwEst, Cental
and South.
And then there is tomorrow's leaders' debate.
Of course I hae never trusted Angus Reid since John Turner told him to fold over and die!
Alberta Tories Well Out Front In Election Where Few Voters Feel Good
About Their Choice
Progressive Conservatives (49%) Hold Huge Lead Over Liberals (28%), NDP
(14%), Wildrose Alliance (5%) and Greens (4%)
Only Three-in-Ten (28%) Voters Feel Good About Their Choice
Progressive Conservative Support Also Most Firm
February 19, 2008
Contact Kyle Braid at (778) 373-5000
Category Ipsos Reid/Global/National Post , Politics & Elections (City/Regional)
Location Canada
Press Release Detailed Tables
Related Information
For more information, contact:
Kyle Braid
Recent Polls & Research
February 16: Steady As She Goes: Election Rhetoric Fails To Sway Voters
February 12: Majority (52%) Says Price Of Basic Food Staples ^QNot
Affordable^R For Average Canadian
January 31: Majority (53%) Of Canadians Support New Government
Policy Not To Automatically Seek Clemency For Canadians On Death Row
Abroad
Calgary, AB ^V As the Alberta provincial election campaign reaches its
midpoint, a new Ipsos Reid/Global Calgary poll shows the Progressive
Conservatives well on their way to another majority government. The
governing Tories have the support of 49% of the province^Rs decided
voters. The Liberals are next best at 28%, followed by the NDP at 14%,
Wildrose Alliance at 5% and Greens at 4%. These results exclude the
two-in-ten (21%) Albertans who are undecided or express no preference.
Albertans are not feeling enthusiastic about their choice at this point
in the campaign. Only three-in-ten (28%) Albertans say they ^Sfeel good
about their choice of party or candidate^T. Seven-in-ten (69%) say they
are ^Sjust making the best choice from the options available^T.
Not only do the Tories have a sizeable lead, their voters are also the
most firm in their support. Only 22% of Progressive Conservative voters
say it is ^Svery likely^T or ^Ssomewhat likely^T that they will change their
mind and end up voting for a different party on Election Day. This
compares to 35% of voters for other political parties.
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid telephone poll conducted between
February 14 and 17, 2008. The poll is based on a randomly selected
sample of 804 adult Albertans. With a sample of this size, the results
sample of 804 adult Albertans. With a sample of this size, the results
are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out
of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of
Alberta been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions
and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were
statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex
composition reflects that of the actual Alberta population according to
Census data.
Progressive Conservatives (49%) Hold Huge Lead Over Liberals (28%), NDP
(14%), Wildrose Alliance (5%) and Greens (4%)
The Progressive Conservatives have a huge lead among decided voters at
the midpoint of the campaign. The Tories have the support of 49% of
Alberta^Rs decided voters, well ahead of the second place Liberals at
28%. The NDP is in third with 14% support, followed by Wildrose Alliance
at 5% and the Green Party at 4%. These results exclude the two-in-ten
(21%) Albertans who are undecided or express no preference.
The current results are very similar to the 2004 election outcome where
the Progressive Conservatives garnered 47% of the votes, compared to 29%
for the Liberals. The biggest difference from the 2004 outcome is that
the NDP is now up 4 points (14% today vs. 10% in 2004) and Wildrose
Alliance is down 4 points (5% today vs. 9% for Alberta Alliance in
2004).
The regional results breakdown as follows:
In Calgary, the Progressive Conservatives (42%) hold an 8 point
lead over the Liberals (34%). The other parties include NDP (10%),
Wildrose Alliance (8%) and Green Party (7%).
In Edmonton, the Progressive Conservatives (47%) hold a 20 point
lead over the Liberals (27%). The other parties include NDP (19%), Green
Party (4%) and Wildrose Alliance (2%).
In the Rest of Alberta, the Progressive Conservatives (60%) hold a
38 point lead over the Liberals (22%). The other parties include NDP
(12%), Wildrose Alliance (6%) and Green Party (2%).
Only Three-in-Ten (28%) Voters Feel Good About Their Choice
Albertans are not overly enthusiastic about their choice in this
election. Only three-in-ten (28%) Albertans say they ^Sfeel good about
their choice of party or candidate^T. Seven-in-ten (69%) say they are
^Sjust making the best choice from the options available^T.
The results are consistent for the two major party contenders.
Three-in-ten Progressive Conservative voters (31%) and Liberal voters
(28%) say they ^Sfeel good about their choice^T.
Progressive Conservative Support Also Most Firm
Three-in-ten (29%) voters say they are either ^Svery likely^T (4%) or
^Ssomewhat likely^T (25%) to change their mind and end up voting for a
different party on Election Day.
Progressive Conservative voters are the most committed to their party
choice. Only two-in-ten (22%) Conservative voters say they are ^Svery
likely^T or ^Ssomewhat likely^T to switch to another party. In contrast,
roughly one-in-three (35%) supporters of other parties (including 34% of
Liberal voters) say they are ^Svery likely^T or ^Ssomewhat likely^T to
change their mind.
And Conservative voters are also just as likely as supporters of other
parties to say they will actually get out and vote on Election Day.
Sixty-one percent of Conservative voters say it is ^Sabsolutely certain^T
that they will go to the polls and vote. This is essentially the same as
the 62% of other party supporters (including 61% of Liberal party
Progressive Conservative voters are the most committed to their party
choice. Only two-in-ten (22%) Conservative voters say they are ^Svery
likely^T or ^Ssomewhat likely^T to switch to another party. In contrast,
roughly one-in-three (35%) supporters of other parties (including 34% of
Liberal voters) say they are ^Svery likely^T or ^Ssomewhat likely^T to
change their mind.
And Conservative voters are also just as likely as supporters of other
parties to say they will actually get out and vote on Election Day.
Sixty-one percent of Conservative voters say it is ^Sabsolutely certain^T
that they will go to the polls and vote. This is essentially the same as
the 62% of other party supporters (including 61% of Liberal party
voters) who say they are ^Sabsolutely certain^T to vote.
Factoring in that 20% undecided
PConvictative 39.2% Liberals 22.4% Undediced 20% NDP 11.2% WRA 4% and
Green 3.2%.
Looks to me anyone's eleciton.
Also the Numbers out of Edmotnon and Calgary, are they correct?
Too bad Rest of Alberta is not broken up into NorthEast, NorthwEst, Cental
and South.
And then there is tomorrow's leaders' debate.
Of course I hae never trusted Angus Reid since John Turner told him to fold over and die!