Riding to Look at on 23 Jan 2006
I would like to see Liberals and Conservatives with a 2 seat difference
with the NDP coming 3rd and the BQ forth.
Still this is Canada.
Numbers in from SES on 20 Jan 2006:
Party CPC LPC NDP BQ Green
Undecided Error
Canada 35.5(-1.5) 29(-1.7) 18.8(2.2) 11.1(+.4) 5.6(+0.7) 12.0(-3.2) 3.1
Atl 41(-6) 31(-6) 23(+9) 6(+4)
12(-4) 9.7
Quebec 26(+2) 18(-1) 9(-1) 44(0) 3(0)
12(-5) 6.1
Ont 36(-4) 39(0) 19(+4) 7(0)
12 5.6
West 41(0) 28(-2) 25(+1) 7(+2)
13(-3) 5.2
SES Regional for 20 Jan 2006:
http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20CPAC%20January%20Regional%2019%202006E.pdf
This should be read.
So now seats of interest based on democracticspace.com (DS) and
electionprediction.org (EP)
http://www.democraticspace.com/canada/2005election/20060119-national.pdf
is a recommended read with electionprediction.org
Newfoundland
Avalon: DS says this riding could swing but the NDP vote determine this.
EP calls this TCTC
One to watch.
The rest should stay the same.
PEI
Charlottetown : EP says TCTC DS says Liberal on projection.
The CONs have been lock out of PEI since 1988. Can they make a
breakthrough?
The other 3 , Liberal.
Nova Scotia
Dartmouth-Cole Harbour , Kings-Hants, and West Nova , EP says are TCTC.
I will add South Shore St Margaret's.
Darthmouth - Cole Harbour is held by Liberal Michael Savage and the
NDP iis the challenger. Who do the Tories want to elect?
Kings-Hant, Scott Brison's Riding and his nearest rival is the CPC.
Will the NDP vote Liberal to push Scott over the top?
West Nova, Robert Thibault Liberal Incumbant . Again
Will the NDP vote Liberal to push Scott over the top?
South Shore St Margaret's
The weakest Tory riding in NS. EP and DS says Tory Victory
with the the Liberals and NDP splitting the vote.
IF one side goes strategic, the Tory is out.
NO other changes expected.
New Brunswick
EP says 5 TCTC all the incumbents are Liberal
Fredericton
Close race between the Liberals and CPC. The NDP must
decide who will win.
Madawaska-Restigouche
Close race between the Liberals and CPC. The NDP must
decide who will win.
Miramichi
Close race between the Liberals and CPC. The NDP must
decide who will win. This could be CPC is both sides
are not careful
Saint John
Close race between the Liberals and CPC. The NDP must
decide who will win. This could be CPC is both sides
are not careful
Tobique-Mactaquac
Close race between the Liberals and CPC. The NDP must
decide who will win. This could be CPC is both sides
are not careful
Atlantic could give us an early preview.
Quebec
Ahuntsic
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the BQ.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Honore-Mercier
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the BQ.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Jeanne Le-Ber
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the BQ.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Extremely close!
Laval-des-Iles
EP says TCTC and DS projects narrow Liberal win.
The Federalist need to vote as one to win this riding!
Outrement
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the BQ.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Extremely close!
Papineau
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the BQ.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Extremely close!
Brossard - La Prairie
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the Liberal.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Extremely close!
Gatineau
Many a Federal Civil Servant lives here.
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the BQ.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Extremely close!
Louis-Saint-Laurent
CPC gains from BQ we hope!
Pontiac
Liberal to CPC? This is one to watch.
Vaudreuil-Soulanges
Marc Garneau is the Liberal Candidate but Vote Splitting
could get the BQ reelcted.
Beauce
Liberal to CPC? This is one to watch.
Brome-Missisquoi
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the BQ.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Extremely close!
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
Only a concentrated vote can defeat the BQ candidate.
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
Only a concentrated vote can defeat the BQ candidate.
This could a bit of a night in La Belle Province
Ontario (All eyes please!!)
PArkdale High PArk
Liberal / NDP Race!! Who do the Tories want to vote for?
St Paul's
EP says TCTC and DS says LPC. LPC better make certain
the NDP do not let the CPC get in.
Trinity Spidina
Liberal to NDP they say.
Beaches - East York
Liberal / NDP Race!! Who do the Tories want to vote for?
And that is just TO!
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
A Tory pick up?? If the NDP vote Liberal, the Tory loses!!
Burlington
Paddy's Seat. The NDP should vote Liberal otherwise
Harper is grinning. TCTC!
Halton:
Cons./Liberal race, The NDP have to decide who they want.
HAmilton East Stoney Creek
Liberal NDP race!! Cons no chance
Hamilton Mountain
Liberal NDP race!! Cons no chance
Newmarket-Aurora
Will Belinda Hold on? Only the NDP can tell. Close race!
Oakville.
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
St Catharines
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Whitby - Oshawa
Projected to go CPC. Can the Liberals win this with the
help of other parties?
Oshawa
NDP/CPC race. Hopefully the Liberals push the NDP over the
top
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
CPC to pick up from Liberal?? NDP needs to help the LPC!
Northumberland-Quinte West
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Ottawa Centre
NDP/LPC race!
Ottawa South
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Ottawa West - Nepean
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Peterborough
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Kenora
NDP/LPC race!
Nickel Belt
NDP/LPC race!
Nipissing-Timiskaming
NDP/LPC race!
Parry Sound-Muskoka
NDP/LPC race!
Brant
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Chatham-Kent-Essex
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Kitchener-Conestoga
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
London-Fanshawe
3 way race!! Watch this riding!!
London West
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Barrie and the 2 Simco Riding will go back to horse and buggy.
There are other races with are
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
A long night out of Ontario. And it gets to be more interesing.
Manitoba
Kildonan-St. Paul
Cons hold
IF the Liberals and NDP join, the CPC is out!
Churchill
NDP/Liberal race
Selkirk-Interlake
NDP/CPC race. Liberals have to choose
Sasketchewan
Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
Can the NDP pick this one up?
Saskatoon Humboldt
Can the CPC lose?
Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
Can the CPC lose?
REgina - Qu'Appelle
Can the CPC lose?
Palliser
Can the CPC lose?
These could be interesting.
Alberta
Edmonton Centre
Liberal / CPC race. The NDP has to choose.
OThers are not that interesting.
BC (Another big battleground)
Victoria
NDP/LPC race.
Esquimalt Juan de Fuca
NDP/LPC race.
Saanich Gulf Islands
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Nanaimo - Alberni
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Vancouver Island North
Liberals voting NDP will send the Tory out.
Kamloops - Thompson - Cariboo
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Okanogan - Shuswap
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Kelowna Lake Country
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
British Columiba Southern Interior
This should be NDP
Pitt Meadows - Maple Ridge - Mission
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Vancouver Centre
NDP / Liberal Race
Burnaby - Douglas
NDP / Liberal Race
Vancouver Kingsway
NDP / Liberal Race
New Westminister - Coquitlam
3 way race!!
Burnaby - new Westminister
NDP / Liberal Race
Surrey North
3 way race NDP lead
West Vancouver Sunshine Coast
Liberal / CON race. NDP can determine the outcome
North Vancouver
Liberal / CON race. NDP can determine the outcome
Port Moody Westwood Port Coquitlam
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Richmond
Liberal win is NDP vote strategically
Delta - Richmod East
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Newton - North Delta
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Liberals can win
Fleetwood Port Kells
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
South Surrey Whiterock Cloverdale
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Liberals can win
The Territories:
NWT could go Liberal to NDP.
with the NDP coming 3rd and the BQ forth.
Still this is Canada.
Numbers in from SES on 20 Jan 2006:
Party CPC LPC NDP BQ Green
Undecided Error
Canada 35.5(-1.5) 29(-1.7) 18.8(2.2) 11.1(+.4) 5.6(+0.7) 12.0(-3.2) 3.1
Atl 41(-6) 31(-6) 23(+9) 6(+4)
12(-4) 9.7
Quebec 26(+2) 18(-1) 9(-1) 44(0) 3(0)
12(-5) 6.1
Ont 36(-4) 39(0) 19(+4) 7(0)
12 5.6
West 41(0) 28(-2) 25(+1) 7(+2)
13(-3) 5.2
SES Regional for 20 Jan 2006:
http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20CPAC%20January%20Regional%2019%202006E.pdf
This should be read.
So now seats of interest based on democracticspace.com (DS) and
electionprediction.org (EP)
http://www.democraticspace.com/canada/2005election/20060119-national.pdf
is a recommended read with electionprediction.org
Newfoundland
Avalon: DS says this riding could swing but the NDP vote determine this.
EP calls this TCTC
One to watch.
The rest should stay the same.
PEI
Charlottetown : EP says TCTC DS says Liberal on projection.
The CONs have been lock out of PEI since 1988. Can they make a
breakthrough?
The other 3 , Liberal.
Nova Scotia
Dartmouth-Cole Harbour , Kings-Hants, and West Nova , EP says are TCTC.
I will add South Shore St Margaret's.
Darthmouth - Cole Harbour is held by Liberal Michael Savage and the
NDP iis the challenger. Who do the Tories want to elect?
Kings-Hant, Scott Brison's Riding and his nearest rival is the CPC.
Will the NDP vote Liberal to push Scott over the top?
West Nova, Robert Thibault Liberal Incumbant . Again
Will the NDP vote Liberal to push Scott over the top?
South Shore St Margaret's
The weakest Tory riding in NS. EP and DS says Tory Victory
with the the Liberals and NDP splitting the vote.
IF one side goes strategic, the Tory is out.
NO other changes expected.
New Brunswick
EP says 5 TCTC all the incumbents are Liberal
Fredericton
Close race between the Liberals and CPC. The NDP must
decide who will win.
Madawaska-Restigouche
Close race between the Liberals and CPC. The NDP must
decide who will win.
Miramichi
Close race between the Liberals and CPC. The NDP must
decide who will win. This could be CPC is both sides
are not careful
Saint John
Close race between the Liberals and CPC. The NDP must
decide who will win. This could be CPC is both sides
are not careful
Tobique-Mactaquac
Close race between the Liberals and CPC. The NDP must
decide who will win. This could be CPC is both sides
are not careful
Atlantic could give us an early preview.
Quebec
Ahuntsic
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the BQ.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Honore-Mercier
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the BQ.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Jeanne Le-Ber
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the BQ.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Extremely close!
Laval-des-Iles
EP says TCTC and DS projects narrow Liberal win.
The Federalist need to vote as one to win this riding!
Outrement
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the BQ.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Extremely close!
Papineau
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the BQ.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Extremely close!
Brossard - La Prairie
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the Liberal.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Extremely close!
Gatineau
Many a Federal Civil Servant lives here.
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the BQ.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Extremely close!
Louis-Saint-Laurent
CPC gains from BQ we hope!
Pontiac
Liberal to CPC? This is one to watch.
Vaudreuil-Soulanges
Marc Garneau is the Liberal Candidate but Vote Splitting
could get the BQ reelcted.
Beauce
Liberal to CPC? This is one to watch.
Brome-Missisquoi
EP says TCTC and DS is projecting a swing to the BQ.
IF the federalists want a win, they have to vote Liberal.
Extremely close!
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
Only a concentrated vote can defeat the BQ candidate.
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
Only a concentrated vote can defeat the BQ candidate.
This could a bit of a night in La Belle Province
Ontario (All eyes please!!)
PArkdale High PArk
Liberal / NDP Race!! Who do the Tories want to vote for?
St Paul's
EP says TCTC and DS says LPC. LPC better make certain
the NDP do not let the CPC get in.
Trinity Spidina
Liberal to NDP they say.
Beaches - East York
Liberal / NDP Race!! Who do the Tories want to vote for?
And that is just TO!
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
A Tory pick up?? If the NDP vote Liberal, the Tory loses!!
Burlington
Paddy's Seat. The NDP should vote Liberal otherwise
Harper is grinning. TCTC!
Halton:
Cons./Liberal race, The NDP have to decide who they want.
HAmilton East Stoney Creek
Liberal NDP race!! Cons no chance
Hamilton Mountain
Liberal NDP race!! Cons no chance
Newmarket-Aurora
Will Belinda Hold on? Only the NDP can tell. Close race!
Oakville.
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
St Catharines
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Whitby - Oshawa
Projected to go CPC. Can the Liberals win this with the
help of other parties?
Oshawa
NDP/CPC race. Hopefully the Liberals push the NDP over the
top
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
CPC to pick up from Liberal?? NDP needs to help the LPC!
Northumberland-Quinte West
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Ottawa Centre
NDP/LPC race!
Ottawa South
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Ottawa West - Nepean
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Peterborough
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Kenora
NDP/LPC race!
Nickel Belt
NDP/LPC race!
Nipissing-Timiskaming
NDP/LPC race!
Parry Sound-Muskoka
NDP/LPC race!
Brant
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Chatham-Kent-Essex
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Kitchener-Conestoga
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
London-Fanshawe
3 way race!! Watch this riding!!
London West
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
Barrie and the 2 Simco Riding will go back to horse and buggy.
There are other races with are
LPC/CPC race. Only the NDP can push the Liberal over the top.
A long night out of Ontario. And it gets to be more interesing.
Manitoba
Kildonan-St. Paul
Cons hold
IF the Liberals and NDP join, the CPC is out!
Churchill
NDP/Liberal race
Selkirk-Interlake
NDP/CPC race. Liberals have to choose
Sasketchewan
Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
Can the NDP pick this one up?
Saskatoon Humboldt
Can the CPC lose?
Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
Can the CPC lose?
REgina - Qu'Appelle
Can the CPC lose?
Palliser
Can the CPC lose?
These could be interesting.
Alberta
Edmonton Centre
Liberal / CPC race. The NDP has to choose.
OThers are not that interesting.
BC (Another big battleground)
Victoria
NDP/LPC race.
Esquimalt Juan de Fuca
NDP/LPC race.
Saanich Gulf Islands
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Nanaimo - Alberni
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Vancouver Island North
Liberals voting NDP will send the Tory out.
Kamloops - Thompson - Cariboo
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Okanogan - Shuswap
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Kelowna Lake Country
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
British Columiba Southern Interior
This should be NDP
Pitt Meadows - Maple Ridge - Mission
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Vancouver Centre
NDP / Liberal Race
Burnaby - Douglas
NDP / Liberal Race
Vancouver Kingsway
NDP / Liberal Race
New Westminister - Coquitlam
3 way race!!
Burnaby - new Westminister
NDP / Liberal Race
Surrey North
3 way race NDP lead
West Vancouver Sunshine Coast
Liberal / CON race. NDP can determine the outcome
North Vancouver
Liberal / CON race. NDP can determine the outcome
Port Moody Westwood Port Coquitlam
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Richmond
Liberal win is NDP vote strategically
Delta - Richmod East
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Newton - North Delta
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Liberals can win
Fleetwood Port Kells
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
South Surrey Whiterock Cloverdale
CPC can be defeated if a concentrated vote takes place.
Liberals can win
The Territories:
NWT could go Liberal to NDP.
Tells use who Graham Norton is