Latest Edmonton Journal Poll
From The Edmonton Journal :
Wildrose Alliance vies for second place in Alberta: poll
By Trish Audette, edmontonjournal.com October 8, 2009 5:57 AM
EDMONTON — The Wildrose Alliance party could be Premier Ed Stelmach’s primary competition if an election was held today, according to a poll released Wednesday.
A telephone survey of 1,201 eligible voters conducted over the weekend shows the Alliance and Alberta Liberals in a “statistical dead heat,” vying for second place behind the governing Tories.
“You have to keep in mind the Conservatives still lead in all categories,” said political scientist Faron Ellis of the University of Lethbridge, who conducted the poll. “The barbarians are not at the gates of the legislature just yet.”
But increased media attention after former Alliance leader Paul Hinman captured Calgary-Glenmore in a byelection — and ahead of the fledgling party’s Oct. 17 leadership vote — has led to a new level of support for a party that “up until now (was) a very fringe element,” Ellis said.
Across the province, the poll suggests 38.4 per cent of Albertans would vote for Stelmach’s Tories today, compared to the 52.7 per cent who supported the party in the 2008 election.
Alliance support was at 21.5 per cent in the poll, up sharply from 6.8 per cent of the votes the party took in the last election.
The poll had the Liberals at 20.8 per cent, the NDP at 10.7 per cent and other parties at a total of 8.5 per cent. The Alberta Greens were deregistered this summer.
“The existing opposition parties don’t have a lot of good news in this poll, unless they can count on vote-splitting in Edmonton,” Ellis said.
In the capital — the only place where the Alliance falls well behind both the Liberals and NDP — the poll shows Tory support at 34.5 per cent, the Liberals at 27.5 per cent, the NDP at 17 per cent, the Wildrose Alliance at 13.1 per cent and other parties at a total of 11.1 per cent.
Edmonton’s numbers are markedly different from Calgary’s, where the Tories polled at 38.2 per cent, the Wildrose Alliance at 27 per cent, the Liberals at 20.7 per cent, and the NDP at 6.6 per cent. Other parties there polled at 7.7 per cent.
Across the province, the Alliance curried slightly more favour among men, middle-income voters, people 65 or older, and people who identify themselves as religious. University grads were least likely to favour the new party.
In analyzing the data, Ellis concluded that the governing Tories face “growing political unrest on their right flank.”
Still, much of the Alliance’s future success depends on whether the party can field candidates in ridings across the province, and the outcome of a leadership race between Mark Dyrholm and Danielle Smith.
“One of the problems this party’s going to have is, they’re going to go down the populist road,” said Ellis, who was a federal Reform party member. He said he currently holds a Wildrose Alliance membership for research purposes and works with the federal Conservative party.
“If you’re Conservative, you can look at these numbers and say, ‘Conservatives are ahead everywhere, good news,’ ” Ellis said.
Stelmach’s Tories have likely seen similar results in their own post-byelection polls, he said.
The Wildrose Alliance claims it now has 11,670 members, up from 1,800 in June.
Alliance president Jeff Callaway said Ellis’s results are not surprising, as the party has done its own internal polls in ridings across the province. “The results are consistent and in some instances even better,” he said. “I think once we get our leader crowned Oct. 17 in Edmonton, it will be one more step closer for us. It is exciting times for the party.”
Alberta Liberal Leader David Swann said it’s important to remember that polls are a snapshot and reflect what people say at the time they were surveyed.
“Of course, the focus of this time was the real upset in Calgary-Glenmore, where most of the Conservative vote went away from the Tories and to the Wildrose Alliance,” he said. “I think anyone who studies political science will also recognize that with a party without a leader, there is a strong tendency for people to give them the benefit of the doubt and to assume something about their policies which most people don’t know anything about yet. There is this strong honeymoon effect.”
Swann said he thinks the numbers will change once the Alliance has a leader and voters see where the party stands on issues such as deregulation, health care, environmental stewardship and human rights.
Tom Olsen, director of media relations for the premier’s office, said Stelmach “does not take for granted” his role as the premier of Alberta.
“To that end, he is committed to continue providing good government to the citizens of Alberta,” Olsen said in an e-mail. “The premier has also been known to say the poll that matters most is the poll that occurs on election day.”
The provincial poll, conducted by students at Lethbridge College and Athabasca University, has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for the Edmonton data was five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
with files from Florence Loyie
My comments are if you look at the my Calgary Glenmore post, I was right!
Wildrose Alliance vies for second place in Alberta: poll
By Trish Audette, edmontonjournal.com October 8, 2009 5:57 AM
EDMONTON — The Wildrose Alliance party could be Premier Ed Stelmach’s primary competition if an election was held today, according to a poll released Wednesday.
A telephone survey of 1,201 eligible voters conducted over the weekend shows the Alliance and Alberta Liberals in a “statistical dead heat,” vying for second place behind the governing Tories.
“You have to keep in mind the Conservatives still lead in all categories,” said political scientist Faron Ellis of the University of Lethbridge, who conducted the poll. “The barbarians are not at the gates of the legislature just yet.”
But increased media attention after former Alliance leader Paul Hinman captured Calgary-Glenmore in a byelection — and ahead of the fledgling party’s Oct. 17 leadership vote — has led to a new level of support for a party that “up until now (was) a very fringe element,” Ellis said.
Across the province, the poll suggests 38.4 per cent of Albertans would vote for Stelmach’s Tories today, compared to the 52.7 per cent who supported the party in the 2008 election.
Alliance support was at 21.5 per cent in the poll, up sharply from 6.8 per cent of the votes the party took in the last election.
The poll had the Liberals at 20.8 per cent, the NDP at 10.7 per cent and other parties at a total of 8.5 per cent. The Alberta Greens were deregistered this summer.
“The existing opposition parties don’t have a lot of good news in this poll, unless they can count on vote-splitting in Edmonton,” Ellis said.
In the capital — the only place where the Alliance falls well behind both the Liberals and NDP — the poll shows Tory support at 34.5 per cent, the Liberals at 27.5 per cent, the NDP at 17 per cent, the Wildrose Alliance at 13.1 per cent and other parties at a total of 11.1 per cent.
Edmonton’s numbers are markedly different from Calgary’s, where the Tories polled at 38.2 per cent, the Wildrose Alliance at 27 per cent, the Liberals at 20.7 per cent, and the NDP at 6.6 per cent. Other parties there polled at 7.7 per cent.
Across the province, the Alliance curried slightly more favour among men, middle-income voters, people 65 or older, and people who identify themselves as religious. University grads were least likely to favour the new party.
In analyzing the data, Ellis concluded that the governing Tories face “growing political unrest on their right flank.”
Still, much of the Alliance’s future success depends on whether the party can field candidates in ridings across the province, and the outcome of a leadership race between Mark Dyrholm and Danielle Smith.
“One of the problems this party’s going to have is, they’re going to go down the populist road,” said Ellis, who was a federal Reform party member. He said he currently holds a Wildrose Alliance membership for research purposes and works with the federal Conservative party.
“If you’re Conservative, you can look at these numbers and say, ‘Conservatives are ahead everywhere, good news,’ ” Ellis said.
Stelmach’s Tories have likely seen similar results in their own post-byelection polls, he said.
The Wildrose Alliance claims it now has 11,670 members, up from 1,800 in June.
Alliance president Jeff Callaway said Ellis’s results are not surprising, as the party has done its own internal polls in ridings across the province. “The results are consistent and in some instances even better,” he said. “I think once we get our leader crowned Oct. 17 in Edmonton, it will be one more step closer for us. It is exciting times for the party.”
Alberta Liberal Leader David Swann said it’s important to remember that polls are a snapshot and reflect what people say at the time they were surveyed.
“Of course, the focus of this time was the real upset in Calgary-Glenmore, where most of the Conservative vote went away from the Tories and to the Wildrose Alliance,” he said. “I think anyone who studies political science will also recognize that with a party without a leader, there is a strong tendency for people to give them the benefit of the doubt and to assume something about their policies which most people don’t know anything about yet. There is this strong honeymoon effect.”
Swann said he thinks the numbers will change once the Alliance has a leader and voters see where the party stands on issues such as deregulation, health care, environmental stewardship and human rights.
Tom Olsen, director of media relations for the premier’s office, said Stelmach “does not take for granted” his role as the premier of Alberta.
“To that end, he is committed to continue providing good government to the citizens of Alberta,” Olsen said in an e-mail. “The premier has also been known to say the poll that matters most is the poll that occurs on election day.”
The provincial poll, conducted by students at Lethbridge College and Athabasca University, has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for the Edmonton data was five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
with files from Florence Loyie
My comments are if you look at the my Calgary Glenmore post, I was right!
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